Republican narrative

Liberal media and the Harris campaign had sought to portray Vance as weird since Trump picked him as running mate, only for him to deliver a masterclass and defeat Walz in a polite vice-presidential debate despite the questions being loaded with progressive assumptions and narratives. Now, it's up to the people to vote wisely.

Democratic narrative

If anything, Walz is the actual winner of this debate, as most independent voters who watched the event sided with him rather than with JD Vance. The Republican may have tried his best to put a civilized face on the far-right extremist he represents, but his actions only proved he is creepy and dangerous.

Nerd narrative

There's a 56% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

While Poilievre may be enjoying current success by repeating a Trump-like message in Canada, there's plenty of time for these fortunes to change before Canada's next federal election. With the right spending more time complaining than presenting substantial policy, don't be surprised if voters do not buy the Conservative Party's superficial hype.

Right narrative

Many Canadians are rightfully holding Trudeau personally responsible for the rising inflation and high cost of living. His popularity has been declining for years, with most believing Poilievre has the best plan when it comes to crucial issues like housing, health care, and the economy. It's time for Trudeau to do what's best for the country — step down.

Nerd narrative

There is an 85% chance Pierre Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The capture of Vuhledar is significant because of its proximity to important frontline areas, and because it lies on high ground that will facilitate further Russian artillery attacks. Its capture could hasten further Russian advances in the region.

Narrative B

Russia's seizure of Vuhledar follows a series of costly, failed assaults over the course of two years of war. Its fall is unlikely to have a significant impact on Ukraine's defense, as it was not a particularly important logistics location, and because Russian forces have controlled most of the main roads running into Vuhledar prior to its capture.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Handicapped by Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit deal and with no intention of returning to the single market or customs union, Starmer's options for revitalizing the UK's European relationship are limited but absolutely necessary for the country's success. Steps such as rejoining the European Economic Area would be an important message to not only the EU but also the entire world that the UK is back in business.

Right narrative

Starmer's gleeful rekindling of a close-knit UK-EU relationship blatantly betrays the will of the British people who voted to leave the European bloc eight years ago. Despite the country's clear rejection of European bureaucracy, it's likely that the UK government will give in to a host of damaging concessions in order for Starmer to fulfill his Eurocentric dreams.

Pro-establishment narrative

The UK's desire for a reset in relations with the EU will be easier said than done. Starmer and his government may well seek concessions from their poorly negotiated withdrawal agreement, but they are unlikely to see any progress until the UK fully honors several provisions that continue to be unlawfully ignored and accepts key pillars of European society such as free movement and the single market.

Nerd narrative

There is a 62% chance that the UK will join the European Economic Area before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

It's no surprise that Democrats continue to lie about Trump's position on abortion considering their candidates' shaky record on this issue. Trump's position has always been that abortion restrictions should be decided by the states, and now he's repeated that again for all to see.

Conservative narrative

If the GOP's undying devotion to Trump means this is the party's new stance on abortion, pro-lifers must rethink their support. Leaving abortion restrictions to the states means that for every place where killing the unborn is forbidden, there's a state where the procedure is available. This is unacceptable and could cost Republicans their necessary victory.

Democratic narrative

Trump shouldn't be allowed to get away with flip-flopping on abortion. He proudly appointed three Supreme Court justices to help overturn Roe v. Wade. His campaign has been tied to the radically anti-abortion agenda, Project 2025. And his party is publicly vocal about its opposition to reproductive rights.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance of a US national abortion ban before Jan. 1, 2030, if Trump is elected president, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Republican attacks on IVF and other reproductive freedoms of families across the country left Newsom with no choice but to sign these crucial protections into law. Together with other LGBTQ+ protections previously made law by Newsom's signature, this bill will solidify California's place on the right side of history and as an example to be followed by other states.

Republican narrative

Considering there was no effort to ban IVF in the first place, Newsom signed this bill in the hopes he could create a false dichotomy between Democrats and Republicans on this issue while luring people to Harris' side. While many conservatives are rightly skeptical about the ethics of IVF, Trump — the GOP leader — has made it clear the party will do what it takes to provide access to the procedure.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 2.73% of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to the daily terror attacks it has seen since Oct. 7. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.

Pro-Israel narrative

Amid ongoing terror from Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, the world has turned its back on Israel. Whole stretches of the region have been taken hostage by Iran-backed terror groups while Israel is fighting to liberate the Middle East. Indeed, Israel does not only have a right to defend itself; it has a right to win.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel is bombing several countries in the Middle East yet continues to play the victim. As it commits genocide in Gaza and works to destroy Lebanon — all in the name of "remaking the Middle East" — it will only create more problems for itself. Indeed, Israel's aggression is only strengthening the resolve of its enemies and pushing the civilian population into their arms.

Narrative A

Despite accusations of having a male-dominated culture and negative biases against female leaders, Mexico has become the first North American country to elect a woman as head of state. This is a clear culmination of a gender parity framework that has been in place for decades in the Latin American country.

Narrative B

It's all too convenient to praise gender parity policies for this outcome when Sheinbaum is, in fact, just another female protégé appointed by a populist Latin American leader who can't run for re-election. Given that this story is reminiscent of Dilma Rousseff's rise in Brazil, one can only hope for better luck for Mexico.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Microsoft is changing the virtual assistant game — not only does it have remarkably advanced long-term memory, decision-making, and reasoning skills, but it's able to utilize these capabilities in real time with its human users. AI assistants will soon know what users want before it's asked — establishing an unprecedentedly efficient work life.

Narrative B

Before we jump on the AI assistant bandwagon, we must consider the serious risks. AI assistants are built to monitor, record, and analyze every minute of daily life, but they can't distinguish between sensitive and nonsensitive topics. This has already led to uncomfortable in-office data leaks, with more to come if consumers simply hand over private information to these products.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that AIs will program programs that can program AIs by January 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.