16 December 2024

Daily Newsletter

Trump Says He'll Push to End Daylight Saving Time

The Facts

  • The practice of moving the clocks forward by an hour in the spring before winding them back in the fall could come to an end in the US after Pres.-elect Donald Trump said Friday that his party would look to eliminate daylight saving time (DST).

  • In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said: "The Republican Party will use its best efforts to eliminate daylight saving time, which has a small but strong constituency, but shouldn't! Daylight saving time is inconvenient, and very costly to our nation."


The Spin

Narrative A

The scientific evidence is mounting that the constant changing of the clocks is bad for our health and has been linked to increased traffic collisions and work place injuries. It should be abolished, but the bigger question is whether Trump would be able to make it happen.

Narrative B

While there are some inconveniences with changing the clocks twice a year, there's plenty of benefits as well. Structuring our days to increase the amount of sunlight we get increases our intake of vitamin D, and has been shown to increase the amount of time we spend exercising and socializing — all of which has important health benefits.

See sources

UK: Lawmaker Warns Chinese Spy Who Befriended Prince Andrew is 'Tip of the Iceberg'

The Facts

  • Senior British Member of Parliament Iain Duncan Smith has warned that the alleged Chinese spy who had reportedly fostered close ties with Prince Andrew is just "the tip of the iceberg" of Beijing's attempts to spy on officials in the UK.

  • The former Conservative leader said there are "many more involved in exactly this kind of espionage." He referenced China's United Front Work Department (UFWD), which allegedly employs 40K global surveillance and influence operatives.


The Spin

Right narrative

The Labour Party is so desperate to avoid negative economic numbers under its leadership that it will do anything to avoid upsetting China. However, Beijing poses a real threat to the UK and Labour's failure to take the problem seriously could have huge implications.

Left narrative

The Labour government continues to take a very strong approach towards China and its suspected espionage of British officials. However, China is one of the world's biggest economies and Britain cannot simply cease all interaction with it as this would have negative ramifications for British businesses.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Bitcoin Hits $106K as Trump Plans Strategic Reserve

The Facts

  • Bitcoin on Monday reached an all-time high of more than $106K, marking a 192% increase this year as US Pres.-elect Donald Trump continues to voice positive views of cryptocurrency and future investments in that sector.

  • Trump on Thursday announced plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve similar to the US Strategic Oil Reserve, aiming to position America as a global crypto leader. He's previously stated that his next administration will retain 100% of all Bitcoins his government owns or acquires.


The Spin

Right narrative

Crypto should be booming. While Pres. Joe Biden's heavy-handed regulation pushed crypto developers to Europe and Asia, Trump is working toward making the US the crypto capital of the world. Between his deregulation agenda and the creation of a Bitcoin reserve stockpile, this trillion-dollar industry will support American prosperity.

Left narrative

It's unlikely this boom will help everyday Americans. Crypto enriches right-wing tech executives and influencers who use their newfound wealth to buy politicians. Trump used his proposed interest in crypto to gain votes while promoting a system where wealth and power are concentrated among those who can best manipulate its volatility.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by Jan. 1, 2030 is $208.4K, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Thousands Feared Dead After Cyclone Chido Pounds Mayotte

The Facts

  • Authorities rushed rescue teams and emergency responders to the French territory of Mayotte off the eastern coast of Africa on Monday after the tiny Indian Ocean territory was battered by its worst cyclone in nearly a century over the weekend.

  • Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on Saturday with winds exceeding 120 miles per hour (193 km/hr). It left thousands of homes without power and severely damaged the Pamandzi airport on Petite-Terre and the Mayotte hospital center.


The Spin

Narrative A

The French government had issued warnings 12 to 24 hours before the category 4 cyclone hit the archipelago, but many ignored the caveats and underestimated its power. However, France is mounting a robust emergency response with military aircraft, ships, and personnel so rescuers and supplies can reach the survivors. This prompt action highlights Paris' commitment to supporting its overseas territory during this exceptional crisis.

Narrative B

Mayotte is in ruins, with an estimated 100K people without shelter, food, and water and possibly thousands of dead, with major blame to be shouldered by the French government. The catastrophic impact of the cyclone exposes long-standing issues of poverty, inadequate infrastructure, political unrest, the migration crisis, underinvestment, and perpetual violent gang activity in Mayotte — highlighting the territory's vulnerability and neglect.

Narrative C

This is an apocalyptic disaster unlike anything seen in at least 90 years because it was fueled by the climate crisis. The cyclone could have weakened had it made landfall on Madagascar, but it strengthened due to exceptionally warm Indian Ocean waters. While cyclones are a natural phenomenon, climate change has contributed to their intensity, making them more destructive.

Nerd narrative

There's a 9% chance that if a global catastrophe occurs, it will be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Drones: New York to Deploy Radar Detection System

The Facts

  • Following hundreds of reported drone sightings since Nov. 19, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas have both confirmed that the DHS will deploy drone-detection technology to New Jersey and New York.

  • US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), has requested drone detection technology from Robin Radar Systems, stating that rather than using a "linear line of sight," the company uses a "360-degree technology that has a much better chance of detecting these drones."


The Spin

Narrative A

This mystery has gone on long enough, and it's time for the federal government to figure it out and tell the public. While regular civilian drones are certainly part of it and should be flown legally, the larger ones are more concerning and must be dealt with. Local and state authorities are prepared to help whenever the federal government decides to do something.

Narrative B

While it's unlikely that the government doesn't know what these drones are, the mere potential of that being true makes this an intriguing moment in recent US history. Whether these are of foreign origin or operated by the US government or military contractors for some unknown purpose is anyone's guess. Until we know for sure, the public should pay close attention.

Narrative C

There is no reason for military-grade drones to be flying around at night unless they're looking for something or someone. Potential reasons for these drones include searching for gas leaks or radioactive material, which has occurred before in recent years. If this is the case the government should come clean and be transparent so Americans can stop worrying.

Nerd narrative

There is a 23% chance that an aerial drone terrorist attack will result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

German Chancellor Scholz Loses Confidence Vote, Early Election Set

The Facts

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government Monday suffered a defeat in a confidence vote, receiving only 207 votes in favor, with 394 against and 116 abstentions in the 733-seat Bundestag.

  • This comes after Scholz's coalition collapsed in November when the Free Democrats (FDP) withdrew following disputes over fiscal policy and the dismissal of FDP finance minister Christian Lindner.


The Spin

Narrative A

Scholz is demonstrating the leadership Germany needs in turbulent times. The chancellor has chosen action over paralysis, paving the way for fresh elections and a chance to rebuild stability. Scholz has shown the courage to break a political deadlock, prioritizing the nation’s future over clinging to power.

Narrative B

This is what Scholz's government deserves after failing to deliver on its promises of economic growth and social relief, opting instead for higher taxes and increased debt. Despite lofty goals, many German policies remain neglected. Scholz’s lack of self-reflection and poor coalition management have left Germany in stagnation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 90.5% chance that the CDU-CSU will win the most seats in the next German federal elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Israel to Expand Settlements in Golan Heights

The Facts

  • Israel said on Sunday that it planned to double the population of settlers in the Golan Heights, a territory generally considered to be illegally occupied, though Israel contests this.

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the move, saying that a "new front" had been opened due to the fall of Damascus to anti-government forces. Israel has seized additional territory in the Golan Heights and bombed Syria's military infrastructure.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel should be wary of expanding its presence in the Golan Heights, as it only isolates Israel internationally and creates unnecessary problems. Israel's Western allies are committed to ensuring stability in the region and will work with Israel to prevent further conflict.

Pro-Israel narrative

Increased settlement of the Golan Heights is necessary to ensure Israel's security, as the region's strategic high ground will act as Israel's first line of defense against terrorist threats. With Islamic radicals taking power in Damascus, Israel must focus on responsibly securing its border.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel's illegal actions in Syria are yet another example of the country's tried and true strategy of falsely claiming it's threatened so that it can steal land. The new government in Damascus is incapable of posing a serious threat to Israel, yet Israeli leaders have nonetheless created fabricated excuses to encroach on Syria's territory so that settlements can be built.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% that Israel will lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Serbian Police Using Israeli Tech to Spy on Activists

The Facts

  • According to an Amnesty International investigation, Serbian authorities are using forensic tools and spyware from Israeli company Cellebrite to conduct surveillance on journalists and activists during police interviews and detentions.

  • The NoviSpy spyware, attributed to Serbia's Security Information Agency (BIA), can capture screenshots, access contact lists, and remotely activate device cameras and microphones once installed on Android phones.


The Spin

Left narrative

This report is no surprise given the ruling SNS Party's authoritarian tendencies. Elections have been rigged through media control, vote buying, and voter manipulation, with the recent parliamentary and municipal elections demonstrating extreme electoral engineering. This pattern of behavior indicates a deliberate strategy to suppress opposition and control the public narrative — hallmarks of an authoritarian regime.

Right narrative

Western opposition to Serbia has nothing to do with authoritarianism but rather Pres. Aleksandar Vučić's refusal to align with EU policies on Russia and migration. Rather than spend time antagonizing Moscow, Serbia has chosen to focus on protecting its border and opposing EU migration policies. Reports like these, whether they contain some truth or not, are likely another propaganda campaign aimed at forcing Serbia to bend the knee to Brussels.

Cynical narrative

The real culprit behind these incidents is the Israeli spyware industry, which is a threat to global security and civil liberties. Companies like NSO Group and Cellebrite, with roots in Israeli military intelligence, sell these tools to both democratic and authoritarian nations. This trade enables surveillance and repression worldwide, as these technologies are used for human rights abuses, blackmail, and silencing dissent across dozens of countries.

Nerd narrative

There is a 36% chance that Serbia will be part of the European Union in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Canadian Finance Minister Freeland Quits Over Trump Tariff Response

The Facts

  • Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's cabinet Monday, hours before she was scheduled to deliver Canada's fall economic statement.

  • Freeland's resignation came after Trudeau on Friday informed her that he wanted to move her to a different cabinet position.


The Spin

Narrative A

This should be the final straw in the debate over whether Trudeau should leave office. His government is in chaos and lacks any semblance of public confidence. Conservatives and liberals alike agree this should be the end of his tenure. And liberals would be wise to get behind Freeland for a larger role in the near future.

Narrative B

Just because Freeland finally had enough of subjecting herself to the whims of the prime minister's office and having to defend nonsensical policies emanating from Trudeau's government, doesn't mean she doesn't get any blame for Canada's struggles. It's about time she called him out, but everyone who's been part of Trudeau's reign should have their public service terms relegated to history.

Nerd narrative

There's a 91% chance that the Conservative Party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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