22 January 2025

Daily Newsletter

Trump Orders Immediate Shutdown of Federal DEI Programs

The Facts

  • The Trump administration on Tuesday directed all federal diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) employees to be placed on immediate paid administrative leave by Jan. 22, 5 pm ET, with their offices to be closed as part of a broader initiative to dismantle federal DEI programs.

  • Federal agency heads have been instructed to provide written plans for executing staff reductions of DEI office employees by Jan. 31 while also being required to remove DEI-related websites and social media accounts and cancel any related training programs.

  • The directive follows Trump's executive order that called for ending what he termed "radical and wasteful" federal DEI programs, rescinding multiple Biden administration diversity initiatives that had previously instructed federal agencies to promote workforce diversity.


The Spin

Republican narrative

The DEI programs represent illegal discrimination and wasteful spending that corrupts institutions by replacing merit-based systems with preferential treatment. These initiatives have infiltrated virtually all aspects of the federal government, creating divisive hierarchies instead of promoting genuine equality and hard work.

Democratic narrative

The dismantling of DEI programs threatens decades of progress in addressing systemic barriers and promoting equal access for historically marginalized communities. These initiatives were designed to ensure federal workforce representation reflects America's diversity and to eliminate structural barriers to full participation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 44% chance that over half of US states will forbid affirmative action before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Libya Police Chief Arrested, Released in Italy War Crimes Case

The Facts

  • Osama Najim (also known as Ossama al-Masri), head of Libya's judicial police and director of Tripoli's Mitiga detention center, was arrested in Turin, Italy on Sunday following an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for alleged war crimes.

  • The arrest came after years of complaints and testimonies from victims to the ICC regarding alleged abuses in Libyan detention facilities, including routine torture, rape, and other serious rights violations documented by the UN in 2022.

  • Najim was apprehended at a hotel following an Interpol tip while visiting Italy to attend a Juventus-Milan soccer match, accompanied by other Libyan citizens.


The Spin

Narrative A

Italian authorities had the opportunity to hold one of the individuals responsible for the serious violations in Libyan detention centers accountable, where horrific abuses have taken place without consequence. Unfortunately, they released the suspect on a technicality. The international community must pursue justice for crimes committed under international law, especially considering Libya's inability to prosecute influential militia leaders domestically.

Narrative B

The arrest posed a diplomatic dilemma for Italy, given its close ties to Libya's internationally recognized government and energy interests. The legal technicality leading to the release protected important bilateral relations and maintained stability in the region's migration management system. The case demonstrates the complex balance between international justice and practical diplomatic considerations with important regional implications.

Nerd narrative

There is a 60% chance Libya will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the metaculus prediction community. 

See sources

Trump Unveils $500B Stargate AI Project With Tech Giants

The Facts

  • Pres. Donald Trump on Tuesday announced an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure project — dubbed Stargate — with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank to invest up to $500B in the US over the next four years.

  • According to the White House, the joint venture will begin with an initial investment of $100B and focus on building data centers and AI infrastructure in Texas. SoftBank Chief Executive Officer Masayoshi Son will serve as its chairman.

  • The project aims to create approximately 100K jobs and includes technology partnerships with major companies — such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Arm — and funding from UAE-based investor MGX.


The Spin

Narrative A

The Stargate project highlights America's commitment to maintaining technological superiority over China in the AI race. The venture will create thousands of jobs, ensure critical AI infrastructure remains within US borders, and establish a foundation for future economic growth through strategic partnerships with leading world-class tech companies.

Narrative B

The massive scale of AI infrastructure development raises serious concerns about environmental sustainability and energy consumption, potentially straining local power grids and departing from clean energy initiatives. Additionally, as geopolitical tensions ratchet higher across the globe, the role of foreign investors in critical US AI technology infrastructure is a perilous proposition.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that concern about AI will go mainstream in the US by January 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UK: Borrowing Hits Four-Year High as Reeves Attends World Economic Forum

The Facts

  • UK government borrowing reached £17.8B in Dec. 2024, marking the highest December figure in four years and exceeding expectations by £3.2B compared to forecasts.

  • The increased borrowing was driven by higher spending on public services, benefits, and debt interest payments, while tax receipts were impacted by previous National Insurance cuts, with debt interest costs reaching £8.3B in December.

  • Total government borrowing for the financial year to Dec. 2024 reached £129.9B, which was £8.9B higher than the same period last year and £4.1B above official forecasts.


The Spin

Left narrative

Reeves's plan remains sound despite criticism. Borrowing more to invest in infrastructure is crucial for boosting productivity and long-term growth, even with higher costs. Reeves is playing a long game, focusing on addressing deep-rooted structural issues rather than seeking short-term fixes. Her strategy is right — public investment, especially in green technology and affordable housing, is essential for creating sustainable economic prosperity.

Right narrative

Reeves's trip to Davos during a time of economic trouble is but another example of poor decision-making. With the economy faltering and borrowing soaring, her focus should be on addressing domestic issues rather than once again fleeing the country when times are tough. Meeting behind closed doors won’t help solve the UK's pressing challenges — her tax increases on businesses have damaged business confidence, and there's still no clear plan for growth.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that UK GDP per capita will be less than half of the world's leading major economy by Sept. 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Germany's Saxony Upholds AfD's 'Far-Right Extremist' Designation

The Facts

  • The Saxon Higher Administrative Court has issued a final ruling rejecting the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's appeal against being designated as a far-right extremist organization.

  • The court ruled there was sufficient evidence that the AfD's Saxony branch campaigns against the human dignity of certain groups and democratic principles, upholding the designation first made by Saxony's Office for the Protection of the Constitution in December 2023.

  • The designation enables security authorities to conduct more extensive surveillance of the AfD, including the potential use of undercover informants, as permitted under German law for defending democratic institutions.


The Spin

Left narrative

Given that the AfD's entire campaign platform is based on targeting people for their racial and ethnic background, this designation is absolutely justified and necessary to protect the country. With the AfD gaining significant support, however, especially among the young and working class, parties like the CDU and the SPD need to engage seriously with issues like immigration, safety, and economic fears. Ignoring these only alienates voters further, pushing them toward the AfD.

Right narrative

The German government is gaslighting voters into thinking the AfD is a threat when, in reality, it is the government itself that is exhibiting authoritarian behavior. The most obvious example of this is the politically motivated intelligence agencies, with no evidence, ruling the AfD as an extremist group. To make matters worse, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is actively seeking to fire police officers who support the party, while the government has attempted to stop AfD leadership from speaking publicly through interviews.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that the CDU will announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the AfD before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Guerrilla Violence Triggers Displacement Crisis in Colombia

The Facts

  • Renewed violence between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissidents of the now-defunct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Colombia's northeastern region of Catatumbo has left at least 80 people dead and thousands displaced over the past week.

  • Government figures released on Tuesday show that more than 10% of the local population, some 32K people, have fled their homes. Most have sought refuge in the border city of Cúcuta, and at least 1K have crossed the border into Venezuela.

  • The week-long hostilities have disrupted education across the region as children and teenagers account for 35% of the displaced population and left families unable to reclaim the bodies of their loved ones for burial.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

A former guerrilla himself, Petro won the presidency with a bold plan to finally bring the decades-old internal conflict in Colombia to an end, but his so-called "total peace" has failed. Cease-fires with armed groups allowed them to expand as the government opted not to apply military pressure on them, and Colombia is now on the brink of another escalation.

Establishment-critical narrative

The so-called total peace never intended to achieve lasting peace in Colombia and tackle the root causes of conflict, as Bogotá has relied on dialogue to cause internal divisions within and among insurgent groups and de-politicize them. It's no surprise that this plan is actually doing more harm than good to local communities.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Colombia will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Israel's Military Chief Resigns

The Facts

  • Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi said on Tuesday that he would step down in March, citing the "failure" to avert Hamas' Oct. 7 attack. Halevi said his departure comes after "the military has recorded exceptional achievements in restoring Israel’s deterrence and strength."

  • Following Halevi's announcement, Southern Command chief Yaron Finkelman also said he would resign due to failing in his "duty to protect the Western Negev and its beloved, heroic residents."

  • Halevi is the most senior military official to resign so far. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected calls to resign or take responsibility for Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, though he has acknowledged he will need to address "difficult questions" after the war.


The Spin

Left narrative

Unlike Netanyahu, Halevi is taking responsibility for the security failures that led to Hamas' Oct. 7 attack. Though extremists in the Israeli government have criticized Halevi on many occasions and Netanyahu has tried to shift the blame onto him and the security establishment, he was an honest and hardworking military leader. Netanyahu should follow Halevi's initiative and resign.

Right narrative

Though Halevi presided over Israel's worst security failure in 50 years, he was an honorable military chief who cares deeply about Israel's security. Nonetheless, the time has come for a new kind of military that refuses to accept partial victories and discards excessive consideration for the enemy. Halevi at times showed weakness, especially when it came to controlling the aid that entered Gaza. Unlike the past, Israel's military must act as an attack dog to ensure the country's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Halevi oversaw the security failures that led to Oct. 7 and the brutal campaign of revenge in Gaza. Ironically, Halevi's primary detractors are right-wing fanatics who believe that he was not brutal enough. Either way, whoever takes Halevi's role will be just as bad, if not worse, for Palestinians as Netanyahu works to break the cease-fire.

See sources

Ichiro Suzuki Leads Historic 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Class

The Facts

  • Ichiro Suzuki became the first Japanese player elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame on Tuesday, receiving 99.7% of votes, just one vote shy of unanimous selection. He had a career .311 batting average, 117 home runs, and 3,089 hits (4,376 including his Japanese career).

  • Also on Tuesday, the Mariners announced that they would retire Ichiro's number 51 on Aug. 9, making him just the third player in franchise history to receive this honor, joining Ken Griffey Jr. and Edgar Martínez.

  • CC Sabathia earned induction with 86.8% of votes in his first year of eligibility, becoming one of only five first-ballot left-handed starting pitchers in Major League Baseball (MLB) Hall of Fame history, finishing his career with 251 wins and over 3K strikeouts.


The Spin

Narrative A

This year’s Hall of Fame class perfectly embodies the diversity and greatness of the sport. Ichiro Suzuki, the first Asian player elected, dazzled with 3K hits and unmatched consistency. CC Sabathia, a 6'6", pound force, ranks with legends like Carlton and Johnson. Billy Wagner overcame adversity to become the toughest pitcher to hit. Their unique paths highlight baseball's inclusivity and rich history.

Narrative B

The Hall of Fame has overlooked several deserving players, especially those linked to steroids like A-Rod and Bonds. The steroid era was widespread, with many in baseball benefiting, suggesting a level playing field. Excluding these players ignores their undeniable talent and contributions to the game, perpetuating an era of hypocrisy in baseball's hallowed halls.

Nerd narrative

There is a 24.3% chance that Pete Rose will be reinstated by the MLB by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Pelosi Discloses AI Stock Trades

The Facts

  • US Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) disclosed multiple stock trades Monday, including positions in technology companies Apple, Nvidia, Google, and Amazon, with transactions potentially ranging between $50K and $25M

  • The trades included the sale of 31.6K Apple shares and 10K Nvidia shares on Dec. 31, followed by new purchases of Nvidia call options in January. Further trades included purchases of Tempus AI, Vistra, and Palo Alto.

  • Pelosi's portfolio reportedly increased by nearly 71% in value during 2024, while Quiver Quantitative estimates that Pelsoi has seen returns of +779% since mid-2014. Unusual Whales places GOP Rep. David Rouzer (149%) and Democrat Rep. Debbie Schultz (142%) with the highest yearly returns.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Congress should be barred from trading stocks, if for no other reason than polls show that the vast majority of Americans, across party lines, support a ban because lawmakers have an unfair advantage due to their access to sensitive information. This undermines public trust, so to preserve democracy, Congress must prioritize ethics over personal financial gain.

Pro-establishment narrative

In a free market economy, members of Congress should be allowed to trade stocks. Banning lawmakers from the market would shield them from the real-world impact of their decisions, creating a disconnect from the economic realities faced by everyday Americans. The US should prioritize stronger enforcement of pre-existing regulations, ensuring transparency and accountability.

See sources

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