Trump Warns Putin to End Ukraine War or Face Tariffs and More Sanctions
US Pres. Donald Trump warned Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that he'll face high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions if he failed to quickly make a deal to end the Ukraine war.
In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump said: "I'm not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin," adding that the US must never forget that Russia helped it and its allies to win the Second World War.
"All of that being said," he continued, "I'm going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE."
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump is a friend to the Russian people but will be forced to take action in the form of tariffs and sanctions if Russian Pres. Putin refuses to cooperate to bring a quick and lasting end to the war in Ukraine.
Pro-Russia narrative
The Kremlin sees nothing new in the rhetoric deployed by US Pres. Trump. It was a tactic of the previous administration and Trump, too, heavily sanctioned Russia in his first presidential term.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by Dec. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: 1 in 12 London Residents is an Illegal Immigrant
Up to 585K illegal migrants reside in London according to a report, constituting one in 12 Londoners and 60% of the over 1M illegal migrants believed to live in the UK.
The study by Leeds-based Edge Analytics says the number ranges from approximately 390.4K to 585.5K. This could now be higher as some of the underlying data is from 2017.
The report, acquired by The Telegraph through a Freedom of Information (FOI) request, was commissioned by utility company Thames Water and prepared to determine the number of "hidden" users of the water-supplying firm's service.
Left narrative
Immigration enriches a society, driving economic and cultural dynamism. Migrants aren't threats but contributors who fill critical workforce gaps, revitalize communities, and represent the interconnected human experience. Fears of displacement are unfounded; diversity strengthens societies, challenging narrow narratives of identity.
Right narrative
In light of rising crime and security risks, concerns about unchecked illegal immigration are legitimate. Documented cases of violent crimes by asylum seekers, combined with challenges in verifying backgrounds and establishing shared societal values, underscore the dangers of unbridled migration to national security and cohesion.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the UK will apply to rejoin the EU by June 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Congress Passes Laken Riley Act, Trump's First Bill to Sign
The Laken Riley Act is headed to US Pres. Donald Trump's desk after the House of Representatives passed it on Wednesday by a vote of 263-156, with 46 Democrats joining all Republicans in support. This is the second time the bill has passed the House.
The bill requires Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to detain unauthorized immigrants who are charged with crimes including theft, shoplifting, assault on law enforcement, or offenses resulting in death or serious bodily injury.
The bill also allows state attorneys general to sue federal officials for not enforcing immigration laws. It was named after Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student who was murdered last year by José Ibarra, an unauthorized immigrant who had previous arrests but was released before trial.
Republican narrative
This bill couldn't have been more straightforward in its intention, which is why many Democrats broke from their progressive colleagues to help it pass. The issue of criminal illegal aliens roaming the country freely has negatively impacted both red and blue states, and the murder of Laken Riley, whose killer had been caught shoplifting just a week prior, was the tipping point.
Democratic narrative
The reason Democrats helped pass this bill is because they care about the safety of Americans just as much as anyone else. This law is specifically targeted at criminals who should face the same legal punishments for robbery, assault, or murder as any American citizen. As for deportations, the only ones facing such a consequence will be violent offenders and murderers, which the majority of voters want.
Progressive narrative
While it's no surprise that Republicans pushed for this bill, it's deeply concerning that dozens of Democrats joined them, betraying the party's supposed commitment to human rights and fairness. This bill, which will expand deportations over mere accusations, not convictions, echoes autocratic tendencies. Thanks to them, the US government will spend billions of dollars on kicking people out of the country instead of creating a stronger immigration system.
Conservative narrative
While Trump's recent immigration policies are a good starting block, they should not be seen as a final victory. The Laken Riley Act and reversal of Biden's parole misuse demonstrate a return to enforcement normalcy, but normalcy is where this problem began in the first place. To prevent future misuse by Democrats, Trump should strengthen legal frameworks around parole, ensuring it remains a rare, emergency tool, not a backdoor for mass immigration.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that an average of 416K noncitizens will be removed from the US for fiscal years 2026 through 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Addresses World Economic Forum
Marking his first major international appearance since taking office, US Pres. Donald Trump virtually addressed the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, speaking about tariffs, the Ukraine war, and the Middle East.
Trump criticized the EU regarding trade practices and tariffs on American farm products and vehicles; he announced plans to pressure Saudi Arabia and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) to lower oil prices; and urged central banks globally to lower interest rates.
Regarding Ukraine, he said lowering global oil prices would help end the conflict and that Moscow's willingness to negotiate is paramount. On other issues, he stated that the US must double its energy capacity to support artificial intelligence (AI) development, pledging emergency measures to expedite infrastructure.
Anti-Trump narrative
Just a few days into his second presidency and Trump has already unleashed a torrent of falsehoods and exaggerations on the world stage. He falsely claimed the EU and Canada unfairly blocked US trade, distorted US-China trade deficit figures, and grossly misstated inflation and tax policies. His rhetoric, filled with inaccuracies, misleads both domestic and global audiences, undermining trust and credibility.
Pro-Trump narrative
Donald Trump's Davos speech shattered the global elite's illusions, prioritizing national interests over their corrupt agenda. He demanded NATO allies increase defense spending, called for lower oil prices, and rejected restrictive trade and environmental policies. What the warmongering Davos crowd likely hated the most, however, was Trump's firm stance on world peace — including his push for nuclear disarmament and ceaseless advocacy for Ukraine-Russia negotiations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 54% chance that the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study Reveals New Details of Giant Underground Mountains That Dwarf Everest
Scientists from Utrecht University have revealed news details of two enormous continent-sized structures buried approximately 1.2K miles beneath the Earth's surface. One is located under Africa, and the other in the Pacific Ocean.
These structures, known as Large Low Seismic Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs), reach heights of about 620 miles — more than 100 times taller than Mount Everest — and are surrounded by a "graveyard" of sunken tectonic plates.
The study, published in Nature on Wednesday, reveals that these structures are significantly hotter than surrounding areas and consist of larger mineral grains. This indicates they are at least 500M years old, possibly dating back to Earth's formation.
Narrative A
These ancient structures are crucial for understanding Earth's evolution and current geological processes. The LLSVPs likely influenced volcanic activity worldwide by generating mantle plumes at their edges, which created volcanic hotspots like Hawaii and Iceland. Their existence proves that Earth's internal structure is more complex and stable than previously thought.
Narrative B
The structures could possibly support the theory of a catastrophic collision between Earth and a Mars-sized planet called Theia 4.5B years ago. This alternative origin theory suggests they are actually fragments of an alien world, which could explain their unique composition and resistance to mixing with Earth's mantle.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that Europa will be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Thailand Same-Sex Marriage Law Takes Effect
Hundreds of LGBTQ+ couples across Thailand registered their marriages on Thursday, as the country's Marriage Equality Act officially came into effect, making Thailand the first country in Southeast Asia and only the third in Asia — after Taiwan and Nepal — to legalize same-sex marriage.
Mass wedding ceremonies occurred at various locations nationwide, including Bangkok's Siam Paragon shopping mall, with over 1.8K same-sex marriages registered by the end of the day.
The law replaces terms like "man," "woman," "husband," and "wife" with words such as "individual" and "spouse" in 70 sections of the Thai Civil Code, granting same-sex couples equal rights in marriage, inheritance, adoption, and medical decision-making.
Left narrative
Thailand is a global beacon of progress, showing the rest of Southeast Asia that marriage equality is possible. Yet, the journey for full equality continues, as transgender rights, including legal gender recognition and anti-discrimination laws, are much-needed next steps. Only when all facets of the LGBTQ+ community enjoy comprehensive legal protections will the fight for equality be over.
Right narrative
While everyone must be treated with respect, Thailand must show caution in its approach to transgender issues, especially where it concerns children, who could face serious repercussions in the face of irreversible transgender procedures. It is crucial to prioritize the well-being of young people and consider the long-term implications of such decisions, ensuring that policies are based on sound medical evidence rather than external pressures.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal will be at least 21.8% in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hamas Commander Israel Said Killed Reemerges
Hussein Fayyad, the commander of Hamas' Beit Hanoun Battalion who was declared dead by the Israeli military in May, seemingly appeared in a video on Wednesday speaking at a funeral in northern Gaza.
Israel had initially announced Fayyad's death following a joint operation by the 98th Division combat units and Air Force special forces, claiming he was killed in a tunnel in Jabalia while coordinating anti-tank missile and mortar attacks.
Israel acknowledged errors in its earlier intelligence assessment, stating that the intelligence the military and Shin Bet relied on was not sufficiently accurate to confirm Fayyad's death.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel's military campaign has significantly degraded Hamas' capabilities, eliminating thousands of fighters and destroying much of their infrastructure. The inability to confirm Fayyad's death reflects the challenges of urban warfare and tunnel operations, rather than a strategic failure. Israel's transparency in acknowledging intelligence errors demonstrates institutional accountability.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The reappearance of Fayyad demonstrates Hamas' resilience and Israel's failure to subdue the group. Hamas' ability to survive across Gaza, despite severe military pressure for over a year, proves that Israel could not achieve its goals. The group's use of guerrilla warfare has effectively challenged Israeli military superiority.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Yemen's Houthis Release Crew of Seized Cargo Ship After 14 Months
Yemen's Houthis have released the crew of the Galaxy Leader cargo vessel — 25 seafarers from Bulgaria, Mexico, the Philippines, Romania, and Ukraine — after holding them captive since Nov. 19, 2023.
This stems from talks with Hamas and mediators from Oman. Crew members traveled from Sana'a, Yemen, to Muscat, Oman, aboard an Omani Royal Air Force aircraft on Wednesday ahead of their return to their home countries.
The release comes amid the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza that entered into effect over the weekend, and coincides with an announcement that Houthi attacks in the Red Sea will be limited to only Israeli-affiliated ships.
Pro-Trump narrative
Donald Trump has been in office for less than a week — enough for the Houthis to soften their tone and take conciliatory moves, freeing the crew of Galaxy Leader and saying they will no longer target US cargo ships. That's quite a change, especially as they picked the biggest fight with the US Navy since World War II, but pressure must continue.
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump's MAGA cult often attribute any positive event to the president, even when it really has nothing to do with him. Houthis had long conditioned the release of the Galaxy Leader crew upon a Israel-Hamas cease-fire in Gaza — which came into effect last weekend. That Trump is now in office is just a coincidence.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Donald Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Temporarily Blocks Trump's Order Ending Birthright Citizenship
A US federal judge in Seattle on Thursday temporarily blocked Pres. Donald Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship, calling it "blatantly unconstitutional" during a hearing. The order was scheduled to take effect Feb. 19.
The order would deny automatic citizenship to children born in the US to non-citizen parents, including both undocumented immigrants and those legally present on temporary visas.
Judge John Coughenour, who was appointed by Pres. Ronald Reagan, issued a 14-day restraining order in response to a lawsuit filed by several states — one of five legal challenges brought by 22 states and immigrant rights groups since the order was signed.
Republican narrative
The US immigration system is broken and this order protects the value of American citizenship. The voters returned Trump to office to stop the system from being gamed by people in the US illegally. Interpreting the Fourteenth Amendment correctly is a step in the direction of protecting American sovereignty.
Democratic narrative
Trump was not elected to unilaterally change the Constitution or overturn years of precedent. The 14th Amendment is unequivocal in its protection of the affected children from becoming stateless. This order would also put an undue burden on states that would lose federal funding for crucial programs.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 500 million Americans by at least August 2117, according to the Metaculus prediction community.