DR Congo Repatriates Americans Spared Death Penalty Over Failed Coup
Three U.S. citizens, initially sentenced to death in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for their involvement in a failed May 2024 coup attempt, have been transferred to U.S. custody after their sentences were commuted to life in prison.
Marcel Malanga (21), Tyler Thompson Jr (21), and Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun (36) were among dozens convicted for participating in an armed attack on the presidential palace led by opposition member Christian Malanga, who was killed in the incident.
The transfer occurred following meetings between DRC President Tshisekedi and U.S. President Donald Trump's senior Africa adviser, Massad Boulos, amid ongoing negotiations between the two countries regarding mineral resources and security cooperation.
Narrative A
The DRC's decision to transfer the Americans is a smart move to secure much-needed security backing against the rebels while diversifying the minerals sector away from Chinese dominance. Kinshasa's move and the strategic foresight of the Trump administration are therefore poised to advance both U.S. interests and promote peace and development in the DRC.
Narrative B
With the murky deal that led to the prisoner transfer, the DRC is submitting to the Trump administration and trading away its resources and dignity to restore security and stability in the country, something Kinshasa itself is unable to do. It is not without irony that the United States, of all countries, is now supposed to provide stability after the coup was led by a U.S.-based DRC politician.
Nerd narrative
There is a 62% chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Orders White House to Lift Restrictions on AP News
U.S. district judge Trevor McFadden on Tuesday ordered the White House to restore the Associated Press' access to presidential events after the outlet was restricted following a dispute over its continued use of the term "the Gulf of Mexico."
Renaming the body of water "the Gulf of America" was among the first executive orders signed by U.S. President Donald Trump upon taking office in January. However, AP said it would continue using the original name, while referencing Trump's change, in guidance issued to its reporters.
The decision led to the White House excluding AP journalists and photographers from events at the Oval Office and from boarding Air Force One in February. In turn, AP challenged the move at the U.S. District Court in Washington.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Associated Press decided to ignore President Trump's lawful name change to the Gulf of America, demonstrating its commitment to being divisive and partisan, rather than pursuing unbiased journalism. It has no right to automatically be given access to presidential events and the decision to limit their access given their publishing of misinformation was justified.
Anti-Trump narrative
The White House has no right to dictate to journalists what language to use and they should be able express themselves freely without fear of retribution. This was the right decision from the court, reaffirming the principles of a free press and the First Amendment.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 37 journalists in the U.S. will face criminal charges related to their work before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Canada: Alleged Beijing-Led WeChat Campaign Targets Carney in Election
The Canadian government's Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections (SITE) Task Force has identified an alleged Beijing-led information operation on WeChat targeting Chinese-speaking communities in Canada to influence perceptions about Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Intelligence reporting released Monday links the Youli-Youmian WeChat account, the platform's most popular news outlet, to the Chinese Communist Party's Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, with posts receiving between 85,000 to 130,000 interactions and up to three million views.
The operation amplified content about Carney's stance against the United States and highlighted his experience and credentials, with bot-like accounts systematically reposting content to boost visibility.
Conservative Party narrative
The Chinese government’s interference in Canadian elections continues unchecked, with the Liberals turning a blind eye to Beijing’s activities for over a decade. This recent PRC-led WeChat operation shows clear support for Mark Carney, a candidate with deep business ties to China. By ignoring these threats, the Liberals have allowed foreign influence to jeopardize election integrity and undermine Canada’s sovereignty.
Liberal Party narrative
The claims of foreign interference targeting Liberal Leader Mark Carney appear overstated. The task force found the PRC-linked campaign was confined to WeChat, with posts both positive and negative about Carney. There is no evidence to suggest the campaign will affect Canada’s ability to have a free and fair election, and the Liberal Party is working transparently with security officials to ensure its integrity.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that Pierre Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Rejects Ukrainian Claims About Its Citizens Fighting Alongside Russia
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian on Wednesday rejected allegations made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that many Chinese nationals were fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine. "Such claim has no basis in facts," Lin said.
It came after Zelenskyy on Tuesday said his country's forces captured two Chinese soldiers fighting alongside Russia in the Donetsk region, adding, "We have information suggesting that there are many more Chinese citizens in the occupier's units than just these two."
Lin said that China was working with Ukrainian counterparts to confirm further details, further suggesting that the men captured were there in a personal capacity.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
The two Chinese prisoners of war captured in Ukrainian territory are the tip of the iceberg of Chinese nationals fighting alongside Russia in the conflict. China needs to answer for these troubling revelations.
Pro-China narrative
China has been consistent in its attempts to bring peace to the war and has maintained a neutral position. Beijing has strongly urged its citizens not to fight in the conflict, let alone in any other foreign engagements.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that a bilateral ceasefire will be announced in the Ukraine war before April 19, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Increases China Tariffs to 125%, Pauses Reciprocal Tariffs on All Other Countries
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday a 90-day pause on his "reciprocal" tariffs — which had taken effect at midnight — against 75 countries willing "to negotiate a solution," instead imposing a "lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately."
China was the only country exempt from the pause, with Trump raising his existing 104% tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. He posted on Truth Social, "At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable."
Global markets initially reacted negatively to the Chinese tariff implementation, with Asian markets experiencing significant declines and the S&P 500 nearly 20% below its recent high. However, U.S. stocks jumped after the tariff pause announcement, with the Dow Jones rising by around 7%, the S&P by 8%, and the Nasdaq by 10%.
Republican narrative
These tariffs are necessary to protect American workers and address unfair trade practices that have led to massive deficits. As shown by today's announcement, countries are already eager to negotiate better deals, while China wants an agreement but doesn't know how to initiate it. This decisive action will revive America's manufacturing base by forcing companies to relocate to the U.S.
Democratic narrative
The U.S. tariffs represent naked extortion and bullying behavior that violates international trade norms. Trump's approach of demanding unconditional surrender while prohibiting legitimate defensive responses is utterly absurd. This unilateral action will damage the global economy and ultimately hurt American consumers through higher prices.
Pro-China narrative
China will not back down in the face of bullying. Beijing is dedicated to protecting the Chinese people's legitimate right to development. If the U.S. wishes to address and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation, it must approach these discussions with an attitude of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. Until this happens, China reserves the right to defend its legitimate rights and interests.
Nerd narrative
There is a 59% chance that China's GDP will exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Signs Orders to Revive Coal Industry
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed executive orders implementing emergency authority to allow older coal-fired power plants scheduled for retirement to continue operating, citing increased power demands from data centers and artificial intelligence.
The orders also direct federal agencies to identify coal resources on federal lands, lift mining barriers, prioritize coal leasing, and end an Obama-era moratorium on coal leasing on federal lands. Trump said he's ending his predecessors' "war on beautiful, clean coal once and for all."
This comes as coal's share of U.S. electricity production has declined from about 45% in 2010 to approximately 16% in 2023. Natural gas provides about 43% of U.S. electricity.
Republican narrative
This is no time for the United States to restrict the use of any energy sources, particularly coal, which is critical for achieving American energy dominance. To thrive in the near future, the United States will have to meet surging electricity demands from AI and manufacturing growth, so these orders are just a part of Trump's plans to unleash the capabilities of America's energy industry.
Democratic narrative
Coal isn't falling out of favor because of some regulatory plot, but because the world — and some in the United States — recognize it as the dirtiest fossil fuel and the biggest contributor to dangerous climate change. Because of advances in technology and worldwide market shifts, coal won't remain competitive and the United States will be left in the dust if it follows Trump's orders.
Nerd narrative
There's a 65% chance that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry will exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
France: National Assembly Passes Mayotte Citizenship Restriction
France's National Assembly has adopted a bill requiring both foreign parents of children born in Mayotte to have lived there legally for at least one year in order for their children to claim French citizenship, increasing from a previous three-month requirement.
The bill passed with 339 votes in favor and 174 against, with National Rally (RN) and Ensemble pour la République supporting the measure, while the New Popular Front (NFP) opposed the legislation. The bill had previously been passed by the Senate last month.
Mayotte is a French overseas territory located in the Indian Ocean near Madagascar. Approximately one-third of Mayotte's population of over 270,000 are undocumented migrants according to official statistics, the highest of all departments.
Left narrative
Restricting birthright citizenship in Mayotte only worsens existing injustices. Instead of addressing the island's severe poverty, infrastructure deficits, and climate vulnerabilities, it targets vulnerable communities. By prioritizing immigration control over urgent humanitarian needs following a recent cyclone crisis, the government perpetuates inequality and colonial attitudes towards Mayotte.
Right narrative
France's amendment to Mayotte's birthright citizenship is a practical response to the island’s overwhelming immigration pressures. By tightening eligibility for French nationality, it aims to reduce the strain on public services caused by mass migration. The reform balances the need for immigration control while preserving fairness in granting nationality, setting a welcome precedent for broader national immigration policy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 65% chance French President Emmanuel Macron will call another snap legislation election before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With Argentina for $20 Billion Loan
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in a statement on Tuesday that a staff-level agreement has been reached with Argentina for a new 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) deal totaling $20 billion, subject to approval by its own executive board.
According to the statement, the Executive Board is expected to consider the proposed arrangement in the coming days. In an interview with a local radio on Wednesday, Argentine presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni said that the final approval will be given on Friday.
If approved, the multibillion-dollar financing program would serve to recapitalize the country's central bank and repay the IMF itself, helping the country's free-market overhaul as Argentina needs to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves to remove currency and capital controls.
Right narrative
The IMF should be generous with funding Argentina now as Milei represents the country's best chance for economic reform in decades. He has already demonstrated commitment through painful adjustments and fiscal discipline that even exceeded the Fund's targets, making this time genuinely different from past failed bailouts.
Left narrative
This new loan is as politically motivated as the one signed under the Mauricio Macri administration and violates the lending rules by which the IMF must abide. If the Fund approves any new disbursement, it will become even more entangled in Argentina's domestic politics and severely damage its own credibility.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Fire-Footed Rope Squirrel Potentially Linked to Mpox Virus
Researchers conducting long-term surveillance in Tai National Park, Côte d'Ivoire, have identified the fire-footed rope squirrel (Funisciurus pyrropus) as a potential source of the mpox virus. This follows a 2023 outbreak among a group of sooty mangabeys that affected nearly one-third of the 80-member group.
The investigation traced the infection to a mangabey named Bako, who had consumed an infected fire-footed rope squirrel, with researchers finding the squirrel's carcass containing an identical viral strain to the one infecting the mangabeys.
The research team's conclusion was supported by three key pieces of evidence — observed hunting behavior of mangabeys eating the F. pyrropus, the discovery of an infected squirrel carcass, and the presence of F. pyrropus DNA in Bako's earliest positive fecal sample.
Narrative A
The identification of the fire-footed rope squirrel represents a breakthrough in the understanding of mpox transmission, with nearly all outbreaks of clade 1 mpox in Africa occurring in areas where people commonly eat these squirrels, and tested specimens consistently showing mpox antibodies. Hopefully, this discovery will contribute to efforts to prevent the spread of this virus.
Narrative B
More evidence is needed to definitively establish the fire-footed rope squirrel as a reservoir host, as there must be proof that most of these animals can maintain and shed the virus without getting sick, and other rodent species such as pouched rats have also been implicated in mpox transmission.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year will be at least 33,700, according to the Metaculus prediction community.