New Saliva Test Shows Promise in Prostate Cancer Detection
According to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, a new at-home saliva test analyzing 130 genetic variants in men's DNA could more accurately predict prostate cancer risk than the current prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood test.
Among 6,142 European men aged 55-69 who participated in the trial, 40% of those with high genetic risk scores were diagnosed with prostate cancer, compared to only 25% typically found through PSA testing, with 55.1% of detected cancers being aggressive cases.
The test identified 74 cases of clinically significant prostate cancer that would have been missed by the current UK diagnostic pathway — which relies on PSA levels and MRI scans — potentially saving the NHS around £500 million annually.
Narrative A
The new saliva test represents a significant breakthrough in prostate cancer detection. It offers a simple, non-invasive way to identify high-risk individuals early, potentially saving thousands of lives while reducing unnecessary treatments and their associated side effects.
Narrative B
The evidence supporting a national screening program remains insufficient. Long-term studies are still needed to prove the test can save lives, as current screening methods could lead to overdiagnosis and unnecessary treatments that might cause more harm than good.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by May 2051, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Meta Whistleblower Alleges Secret China AI Dealings
Former Meta executive Sarah Wynn-Williams testified before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Wednesday, alleging that Meta provided artificial intelligence (AI) briefings to Chinese officials as part of "Project Aldrin" to gain access to China's market.
Wynn-Williams, who served as Meta's Global Public Policy Director from 2011 to 2017, claimed the company developed a censorship system in 2015 that could shut down content during social unrest, and allegedly helped China advance AI technologies like DeepSeek.
According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, Meta generated $18.35 billion in revenue from China in 2024—more than double the $7.4 billion from 2022—despite not operating its main services within the country.
Establishment-critical narrative
Meta deliberately undermined U.S. national security by providing critical AI technology briefings to China, helping them outcompete American companies while building an $18 billion business there, all while censoring content at Beijing's request and lying to Congress about these activities.
Pro-establishment narrative
The allegations are entirely false and misleading, as Meta has always been transparent about its interest in China but never actually operated its services there. Any revenue from China comes solely from advertisers targeting users outside the country.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that OpenAI will offer ChatGPT in China before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Germany: Merz Seals Deal with SPD to Form Ruling Coalition
Conservative leader Friedrich Merz and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) formed a coalition Wednesday following February's elections, when Merz's CDU/CSU bloc won with 28.5% of the vote and far-right AfD came second with 20.8%.
The deal, titled "Responsibility for Germany," includes plans to lower energy prices, introduce corporate tax cuts, reform immigration policies, create a digital ministry, and reduce the federal government's size by 8% over four years.
The new government promises to implement stricter border controls, including turning away asylum seekers at land borders, speeding up deportations to "safe countries," and launching a "repatriation offensive" against illegal immigrants.
Left narrative
Germany's new coalition marks a turning point, promising strength, reform, and renewed global relevance. With his clear-eyed realism and unyielding resolve, Merz is the leader to steer Europe's largest economy through turbulent times. His bold commitment to defense, economic revitalization, and European autonomy signals a confident break from paralysis, offering Germany—and Europe—a leader unafraid to confront hard truths and restore stability at home and strength abroad.
Right narrative
Merz's coalition with the battered SPD is a profound setback for Germany. In ceding key policies and abandoning fiscal discipline, he has betrayed center-right voters and hollowed out his party's identity. This capitulation empowers a rejected SPD and leaves conservatives politically homeless, fuelling disillusionment and feeding the rise of extremism. At a time of grave economic and security challenges, Germany needed resolute leadership; instead, it gets compromise masquerading as a strategy—a gift to its radical fringes.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that an application to ban AfD will be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Dinosaurs Thrived Before Asteroid Impact
A comprehensive study analyzing over 8,000 North American dinosaur fossils from 84 to 66 million years ago has revealed that the apparent decline in dinosaur populations before the asteroid impact was likely due to poor fossil preservation rather than actual population decrease.
Researchers from University College London, led by Dr. Christopher Dean, employed occupancy modeling techniques to estimate dinosaur presence across North America. They divided the continent into a grid and considered factors such as geology, geography, and climate at the time.
The study focused on four major dinosaur groups: Ankylosauridae (armored herbivores), Ceratopsidae (horned dinosaurs), Hadrosauridae (duck-billed dinosaurs), and Tyrannosauridae (carnivores), finding that their habitat occupation remained stable throughout the period.
Narrative A
The fossil record has been misinterpreted for decades, leading to incorrect conclusions about dinosaur decline. The apparent decrease in dinosaur populations is actually due to geological processes that limited fossil preservation, not a real biological decline. These magnificent creatures were thriving right up until the asteroid struck.
Narrative B
While the immediate pre-extinction period might show stable populations, the overall evolutionary trajectory of dinosaurs shows a concerning pattern. The rate of new species emergence was declining over the 175 million years of dinosaur existence, with more species going extinct than evolving, indicating a broader, long-term decline in dinosaur diversity. The mystery of the complex downfall of the dinosaurs is not fully settled.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2.5% chance that a major cryptid discovery will be made by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US to Screen Immigrants' Social Media for Antisemitic Content
The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced on Wednesday that it will begin monitoring immigrants' social media accounts for antisemitic activity as grounds for denying immigration benefit requests.
The measures will apply to those applying for permanent residency, international students, and foreigners "affiliated with educational institutions linked to antisemitic activity."
The Department of Homeland Security stated it will enforce immigration laws to protect against those who support "antisemitic terrorism, violent antisemitic ideologies, and organizations such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, or... the 'Houthis.'"
Republican narrative
The policy represents a necessary measure to protect national security and combat antisemitism, ensuring that those who support terrorist organizations or promote antisemitic violence cannot exploit immigration benefits while hiding behind First Amendment protections.
Democratic narrative
The surveillance program represents government overreach that threatens free speech rights, uses the protection of Jews as an excuse to advance anti-immigrant policies, and conflates legitimate criticism of Israeli policies with antisemitism while creating a chilling effect on protected political expression.
Nerd narrative
There is a 70% chance that the United States will score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US-China Trade War Escalates as Tariffs Soar to 145%
The White House confirmed Thursday that total tariffs on Chinese imports have reached 145%, comprising a new 125% levy plus an existing 20% tariff related to fentanyl trafficking.
Global markets reacted sharply to the news, with the S&P 500 initially dropping 5%, the Nasdaq tumbling 6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 1,800 points before recovering somewhat.
Additionally, oil prices reversed course. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.22, or 3.6%, to $60.13 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped $2.04, or 3.1%, to $63.44 per barrel upon the revised tariff announcement.
Pro-establishment narrative
The tariffs are crucial to protecting U.S. interests, encouraging domestic manufacturing, and creating leverage for future negotiations with China. The day pause for other nations is a strategic approach to reset global trading relationships and maintain pressure on Beijing to address specific concerns about fentanyl trafficking and unfair trade practices.
Establishment-critical narrative
The escalating tariff war threatens to devastate global trade, spike inflation, and potentially trigger a financial crisis. The dramatic market reactions and bond yield volatility indicate serious risks to economic stability. The potential for Chinese retaliation through rare earth restrictions or Treasury sales could severely impact U.S. military readiness and borrowing costs.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that armed conflicts between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China will lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
House Passes Bill Requiring Citizenship Proof to Vote
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act in a 220-208 vote, with four Democrats joining all Republicans in support of the measure. The bill would require documentary proof of citizenship for federal election voter registration.
The legislation would require voters to present proof of identity — such as a U.S. passport, military identification card, or REAL ID-compliant driver's license — indicating citizenship status, along with a birth certificate or similar documentation when registering to vote in federal elections.
The bill would mandate in-person presentation of citizenship documentation at election offices, even for voters who register by mail. The bill also provides for assurances that "reasonable accommodations" are made for individuals with disabilities.
Republican narrative
Republicans are continuing to ensure only American citizens can participate in federal elections. As this largely partisan vote shows, Democrats don't care about election integrity and they're more interested in protecting those who are in the United States illegally over their American constituents.
Democratic narrative
This is the worst voter suppression bill ever considered by Congress. It could create significant barriers for millions of voters, including women who change their legal name because of marriage. It's already illegal for non-citizens to vote and instances of this are extremely rare. This bill must be squashed in the Senate.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that 17 year-olds will be permitted to vote in the United States by July 2054, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Peace Talks Between DRC, M23 Begin in Qatar
Two Congolese officials and two representatives for the anti-government March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group speaking on condition of anonymity said on Thursday that Qatari-mediated talks in Doha for a ceasefire in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have begun.
They added that the delegations had a face-to-face meeting in the Qatari capital on Wednesday and that the framework for talks was still being discussed. However, one of the rebel delegates claimed that his counterparts lacked "qualifications or the ability to negotiate," and a Congolese official warned that any conflict resolution would take months.
Reports suggest that M23 is demanding amnesty for its members and a guarantee that the Congolese delegation in Doha will have full decision-making power, among other preconditions, while the DRC government wants M23 to withdraw from seized areas, including Goma and Bukavu, as well as to disarm and demobilize.
Narrative A
Congolese people continue to suffer in eastern DRC as millions have been forced out of their homes over the past three years — dialogue is crucial to break this never-ending cycle of violence. It's about time to address the root causes of this conflict, such as the legitimate grievances of rebels and Rwanda's interference in the country.
Narrative B
M23 is committed to peace negotiations, and its actions reassert just that. Yet, Kinshasa may rest assured that provocations or attacks against civilians in the liberated areas and its other positions will trigger a strong response to eliminate the threat at its source.
Nerd narrative
There's a 62% chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hundreds of Israeli Reservists Call for Return of Hostages Even If War Must End
Hundreds of Israeli Air Force reservists and retired officers signed a letter on Thursday calling on the government to agree to a deal with Hamas in exchange for the return of the hostages, even if it meant the war in Gaza must permanently end. Only a few dozen of those who signed the letter are active military personnel.
Separately, over 150 former Israeli Navy officers signed a letter calling on the government to halt the war, warning that the continued military operations endanger hostages, civilians, and soldiers. The government was also accused of prioritizing politics over the release of the hostages.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the criticism of the war by the air force reservists, calling their letter "unforgivable." The military said it would dismiss serving reservists who had signed the letter, adding that it would not allow them to engage in political protests.
Pro-establishment narrative
The return to war will not save the hostages. Furthermore, Israel's policy of blocking aid from entering Gaza is creating widespread starvation across the strip. Both sides need to make concessions so that the ceasefire can be fully implemented and the hostages are returned.
Pro-Israel narrative
Hamas got two weeks of a ceasefire for free as it refused to release additional hostages, making a return to war inevitable. Though the media have uncritically parroted Hamas propaganda regarding civilian casualties, the reality is Israel is targeting senior Hamas officials and the terror group's military infrastructure, which is embedded in civilian areas. If Palestinians in Gaza want the war to end, they should force Hamas to release the hostages.
Pro-Palestine narrative
It should be clear after over a year of grinding brutality that Israel's true goal is to destroy Gaza and starve its people. Indeed, starvation is an integral part of Israel's genocidal campaign. Children are on the verge of starving to death in their mother's arms, yet the United States and the international community have failed to end this travesty.
Nerd narrative
There's a 6% chance that Israel will establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.