US-China Trade War Escalates as Tariffs Soar to 145%

US-China Trade War Escalates as Tariffs Soar to 145%
Above: Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 7, 2025. Image copyright: Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The tariffs are crucial to protecting U.S. interests, encouraging domestic manufacturing, and creating leverage for future negotiations with China. The 90-day pause for other nations is a strategic approach to reset global trading relationships and maintain pressure on Beijing to address specific concerns about fentanyl trafficking and unfair trade practices.

Establishment-critical narrative

The escalating tariff war threatens to devastate global trade, spike inflation, and potentially trigger a financial crisis. The dramatic market reactions and bond yield volatility indicate serious risks to economic stability. The potential for Chinese retaliation through rare earth restrictions or Treasury sales could severely impact U.S. military readiness and borrowing costs.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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