The Facts

  • On Friday, Japan announced a five-year $320B package to build up its military — the largest of its kind since World War II and a significant departure from its pacifist stance.

  • The new plan will reportedly include an increased defense budget of 2% of GDP by 2027, up from about the current 1%. Based on the current GDP, annual spending could reach approximately $80B, ranking Japan third out of the top three countries, behind the US and China.


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

Japan, which holds the largest permanent contingent of US forces overseas, can no longer solely rely on US support — a fact that this latest plan acknowledges. The new strategy fortifies the US and Japan's vigor and will reshape their ability to promote peace and protect the Indo-Pacific region as China attempts to exert its influence.

Pro-China narrative

Japan is groundlessly discrediting China. By adopting this new policy, Japan is putting itself on a more offensive footing, and deviating from its commitment to China-Japan relations and the common understanding between the two countries. But hyping-up the so-called China threat to find an excuse for its military build-up is doomed to fail.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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