The Facts
- On Monday, jury deliberations began in the Trump Organization tax fraud trial. The company has been accused in New York of compensating top executives off the books for around 15 years.
- The trial has featured four weeks of testimony and arguments surrounding the real estate company's pay practices.
- Although Donald Trump isn’t personally on trial, prosecutors allege the former president knew and sanctioned almost every part of the fraud. Defense lawyers have depicted Allen Weisselberg, the company's former CFO and a key prosecution witness, as a rogue, "greedy" employee blaming his fraud on others.
Sources Split
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The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
This case is another attempt to undermine Trump and his organization with frivolous lawsuits. Weisselberg has already pleaded guilty and is the clear culprit behind the alleged scheme, yet the former president's opposition is quick to use this as a weapon against him. Democrats seemingly won’t stop until they’ve bled Trump dry via legal warfare.
Democratic narrative
Attempts to separate Trump from the fraud committed by his company are naïve. While the former president may not be on trial, in this case, there's no doubt that the businessman was fully aware of Weisselberg's — and the rest of the company's — doings. The defense inevitably has a losing case.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 16% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.