NATO Summit Underway in Washington, DC

Above: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin welcomes NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during an honor cordon at the Pentagon on July 8, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia. Image copyright: Alex Wong/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • 38 world leaders arrived in Washington, DC, on Monday for the 75th NATO summit. Primary topics of focus will include supporting Ukraine against Russia, US Pres. Joe Biden's health, and the future of the alliance should former US Pres. Donald Trump be re-elected.

  • Besides NATO members, the heads of Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea will also be in attendance. Diplomats have reportedly stated that they'll be keeping an eye on Pres. Biden's behavior but noted that they would not discuss the matter publicly.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

NATO will become stronger and more unified than ever following the 75th anniversary meeting. The 32 member nations' leaders, along with their key allies and Ukraine, will strive to meet the alliance's collective security needs. Not only will it create a broader alliance to reduce the risk of conflict with rivals, but the US will be a safer place with a stronger global economic position. NATO will continue its decades-long history of peace through strength.

Pro-Russia narrative

Moscow will follow this summit closely because NATO considers Russia an enemy and aims to inflict a strategic battlefield defeat against the Kremlin on the battlefield. Given the coalition has been actively participating in the Ukraine conflict and fighting for Ukraine, Russia will closely monitor any statements or decisions that emerge from the alliance's summit.


Metaculus Prediction



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO