US Hits Iran With New Sanctions Targeting Oil Sales to East Asia
AntiWarJUL 2022
Report: US, Iran Held Secret Talks Over Middle East Tensions
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The Spin
Anti-Iran narrative
Pres. Biden's cautious approach to Iran, characterized by a reluctance to escalate tensions, has failed to adequately respond to its aggression. The administration's fear of a wider conflict has emboldened Iran and its proxies. A comprehensive strategy using diplomatic, economic, and military tools is needed to pressure Iran and protect American interests.
Pro-Iran narrative
Pragmatism has been a part of Iran's approach to international relations. Despite decades of hostility, Iran and the US have engaged in multiple secret talks, showcasing a rare diplomatic engagement. The recent protests in Iran have further highlighted the regime's need for legitimacy, making diplomatic channels with the US a potential avenue for political gain.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 4% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
