The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

Palestine can no longer be ruled by the current Palestinian Authority (PA), let alone Hamas. If the world wants peace in the region, Palestine must be demilitarized and brought under a legitimate governing body. This will first require a complete dismantling of Hamas, followed by security mechanisms between Israel and neighboring countries like Egypt to ensure weapons are no longer smuggled into Gaza.

Pro-Palestine narrative

If Netanyahu wants to free Palestine from the grips of both Hamas and the PA, he's doing a terrible job. As the Muslim world watches live coverage of Israel bombing Gaza — with 70% of deaths being women and children — public support for the PA has plummeted and been replaced by rising support for Hamas. Israel is not only firing weapons but using starvation as a military tactic. This war, whenever it ends, won't lead to global support for Israel.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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