Poll: Trump Leads Popular Vote, Trails in Key Battleground States
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
Biden is on a rapid decline while Trump is on the upswing. This poll — like a sea of others — shows Democrats still don’t understand their voters’ desires, let alone the resurging significance of Trump's base. And Democrats should be even more concerned if a third-party candidate stays in the race until the end.
Anti-Trump narrative
Although it’s scary to imagine Trump’s return to the White House, these recent surveys — almost a year out from the election — don’t reflect a resounding Trump win and their predictions are easily avoided. Biden may take a hit if certain non-White younger voters decide not to vote, but all he has to do is motivate the traditional Democratic base, and his second term will be safe.
Metaculus Prediction
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