Gaza Cease-fire Talks Resume in Doha

Gaza Cease-fire Talks Resume in Doha
Above: A man carries items on his back as people remove possessions from their homes following Israeli airstrikes on April 13, 2024 in Khan Yunis, Gaza. Image copyright: Ahmad Hasaballah/Stringer/Getty Images Europe via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Gaza cease-fire negotiations resumed on Thursday in Doha, though Hamas has said it will not directly attend the talks. Qatar told the US that Hamas' views will be represented and mediators will consult the group on the talks' proceedings.

  • Israeli officials have said the talks in Qatar are "the last chance" to reach a deal, as the region anticipates a response from Iran and Hezbollah over the killings of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut and Hamas' political leader in Tehran.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US and its allies are confident that, after some tough negotiating, a deal between Israel and Hamas can be reached. A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, the release of Israeli hostages, and create a better 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work towards closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though Israel will do what it must to free those taken hostage in Gaza, it cannot rush into a deal that creates a lifeline for Hamas. Israel faces an entire network of Iranian-backed terror, and must act wisely to gain as much as it can in negotiations with Hamas while avoiding full-scale regional escalation. Israel may have to make some tough, but necessary, concessions to ensure the release of the hostages and prevent further instability.

Pro-Palestine narrative

There is no indication that a cease-fire is on the horizon. Netanyahu has consistently sought to escalate the situation and prolong his political career. Israel's killing of Ismail Haniyeh was clearly a move intended to further complicate cease-fire negotiations and provoke an Iranian retaliation. The US has supported Israel every step of the way, including in its genocidal campaign in Gaza.


Metaculus Prediction


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Establishment split

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