Iran Votes for New President in Snap Elections

Iran Votes for New President in Snap Elections
Above: Iranian citizens arrive to cast their votes for 12th term of the parliamentary elections and the 6th term of the Assembly of Leadership Experts at a polling station in Tehran, Iran on March 01, 2024. Image copyright: Majid Saeedi/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Iran is voting in snap elections on Friday to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi after the then-president was killed along with other senior officials, in a helicopter crash in May.

  • Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, parliamentary speaker and former air force commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili — both considered hardliners — are said to be the most prominent of the four candidates.


The Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

Despite the hopes of certain foreign powers that Raisi's unexpected death would plunge Iran into chaos, the snap election is proof of the country's political stability. Western and Israeli calls to boycott the vote are doomed to fail, and voter turnout is set to exceed that of the 2021 elections. While the results of the free elections are not yet known, they will prove the Iranians' resilience and autonomy and their will to choose their own path amid foreign efforts to bring Iran to its knees.

Anti-Iran narrative

This presidential election is essentially a sham, as elections under the Iranian regime are neither free nor fair. Having failed in its foreign policy and economic performance, the regime hopes to boost its legitimacy through a high voter turnout. While Pezeshkian may be the only candidate who aims to improve ties with the West and promises to ease social oppression, he also poses no vital threat to the theocratic system. Iranians deserve change, but this so-called election is unlikely to deliver it.


Metaculus Prediction


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