IMF Slashes Global Economic Growth Forecast to 2.8%

IMF Slashes Global Economic Growth Forecast to 2.8%
Above: Donald Trump, during a "Make America Wealthy Again" trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Image copyright: Chip Somodevilla/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump's tariffs aim to protect American industries and reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing, especially from countries like China that engage in unfair trade practices. The U.S. encourages domestic production, safeguards jobs, and strengthens national security by imposing tariffs. These policies level the playing field for American workers and businesses, promoting long-term economic independence. While short-term costs may rise, the strategic goal is to foster a more self-reliant and resilient U.S. economy, rebuild American wealth, and create true reciprocity in trade relationships.

Anti-Trump narrative

Global growth forecasts have dimmed amid concerns of a looming recession, driven by persistent inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. Trump's unprecedented trade barriers exacerbate the situation, risk raising costs for American consumers and businesses, straining global supply chains, and causing economic uncertainty. Such protectionist measures, combined with already sluggish growth, could threaten the stability of the international monetary system that has operated effectively for the past 80 years and push the global economy closer to a downturn.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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