Trump Warns Iran of 'Very Powerful' Response Over Missile Rebuild
The Spin
Pro-Iran narrative
Trump appears increasingly driven by Benjamin Netanyahu’s push for strikes on Iran’s missile program, adopting a justification that replaced the collapsed nuclear-threat narrative. The shift recycles old objectives rather than a new danger. Despite signaling unease, Trump is drawn into Netanyahu's logic of escalation, sidelining diplomacy. Tehran’s warnings of a harsh response reinforce that the missile focus serves as a pretext for confrontation with Iran, not a genuine threat.
Anti-Iran narrative
Iran's accelerating development of chemical and biological warheads for ballistic missiles poses an immediate threat that demands action. The regime has successfully rebuilt most of its missile stockpile to pre-strike levels and is expanding infrastructure while facing economic collapse and brutal crackdowns on protesters. Netanyahu's evidence of Iran's weapons rebuild justifies seeking authorization for military strikes before Tehran reaches 2,000 missiles capable of hitting Israel.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
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