Venezuela: Machado Says Elections Possible This Year, Amnesty Bill Passes First Vote

Should the U.S. push for immediate elections in Venezuela, prioritize stabilization and institutional reform or is its actual goal to install a puppet regime?
Venezuela: Machado Says Elections Possible This Year, Amnesty Bill Passes First Vote
Above: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado speaks with the press in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 20. Image credit: Luke Johnson/Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

Venezuela needs free and fair elections immediately with all political prisoners released, exiles allowed to return and civil society restrictions lifted. As the opposition won the 2024 election decisively, it's they — not the remnants of the Maduro dictatorship — who must lead the country. Delaying elections only entrenches the same autocratic regime under new management, risking legitimizing leadership who lack any democratic mandate.

Pro-Trump narrative

Rushing to elections before stabilizing Venezuela would create chaos and empower the same criminal networks that sustained Maduro's regime. The military, drug cartels and Chavista operatives still control the country's institutions, making premature elections a recipe for civil war or another rigged outcome. Stabilization and recovery must come first to dismantle Iran, Russia and China's presence, rebuild the oil industry and create genuine conditions for democracy.

Establishment-critical narrative

The U.S. has never really cared about democracy abroad, so it should have been obvious that the Trump administration promoted this rhetoric only to justify the bombing of a foreign country and the kidnapping of its legitimate head of state in an abhorrent operation to gain control over resources in Venezuela. The U.S. end game in Venezuela isn't free and fair elections, but installing a puppet regime. Even Machado may end up behind bars if she goes against Washington.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.20.3

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.20.3