Anti-Iran narrative

Most Iranians boycotted the first round of voting, and a similarly low turnout is expected from the angry electorate in the run-off. Khamenei may have been quite successful in feeding the illusion of competition between the ultra-conservative Jalili and the alleged moderate "reformist" Pezeshkian abroad, but Iranians know that both are loyal to the theocratic system. After all, power in Iran is completely controlled by the supreme leader, and the people no longer believe in the regime's ability to reform.

Pro-Iran narrative

It's remarkable that the West, with its politically disillusioned people, dares to criticize the low voter turnout in Iran's first round of elections. Moreover, contrary to claims of anti-Iranian propaganda, there are early signs of a higher turnout in the run-off vote, with Iranians well aware of the foreign forces responsible for their difficult economic situation. Both candidates and the nation are united in their patriotism and will never allow Iran's enemies to determine the country's future.

Nerd narrative

There is a 40% chance, that Masoud Pezeshkian will win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has sincere aspirations of finding a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine conflict. As such, comments from Trump — expected to be the next president of the US — will be carefully considered and taken seriously if he puts forward meaningful ideas for bringing the war to a close.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

If Trump has a plan for ending the war, this needs to be shared with Ukraine — particularly as the future of the country's livelihood and sovereignty are at stake.

Nerd narrative

There is a 4% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Labour narrative

Labour's historic victory and the demise of the Conservatives is a watershed moment for the UK. After fourteen years of hurt, corruption, cynicism, and economic mismanagement, the country can finally look to the future with confidence and optimism. While the party must not dismiss either the scale of the task at hand or the looming threat that Reform and Farage may pose in the years to come, Starmer's entry into Downing Street is undeniably a day to celebrate.

Tory narrative

The Conservative Party must accept that they have been the architects of their own demise. While honest reflection can only conclude that the Tories have lost the electorate's faith for many reasons, it's vital for UK democracy that the party rebuilds and rebuilds quickly. Without a strong Conservative Party to pick up the pieces after Labour's inevitable future failure, there's no telling who may soon hold the keys to power.

Establishment-critical narrative

The UK democratic processes are in dire need of reform. While many attempt to gloss over first-past-the-post's inadequacies through an obscure defense of the country's many historical "quirks," the reality is that the system disregards the voices of tens of millions of voters. Proportional representation is necessary if the UK is to maintain its reputation as a world-leading advocate for democracy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Keir Starmer will continue to be leader of the Labour Party by Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

The decline of patriotism is the result of a long, coordinated attack by Marxist intellectuals. After igniting their attack on Western values in the 19th century through communist economic theories, they shifted in the 20th century to cultural Marxism by dividing society along racial and gender lines. This culminated in generations of children learning to hate American history, traditions, and ancestry. American pride is lost because those in charge of teaching history hate America.

Left narrative

There certainly has been a decades-long attack on the country, but corporate conservatives, not the left, are behind the scheme. Following historic policies banning child labor, raising minimum wages, and passing civil rights laws, the corporate donor class began offering voters a false sense of nostalgia for the 'good old days' while secretly pushing for policies that rob the middle class to make the rich richer. Patriotism is the love of America and its history of progress, not of the 1%.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 500M Americans by 2116, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Erdoğan government is doing little to effectively quell the xenophobic unrest spreading like wildfire across Turkey. What's worse, the government is even taking steps to push refugees back into Syria under a doomed "safe zones" plan, where they would face certain persecution from Assad. The Turkish government needs to clamp down on the anti-Syrian prejudice, not embolden it.

Establishment-critical narrative

More than any other country, Turkey has borne the burden of the Syrian refugee crisis. Millions of refugees have strained Turkish society, and the tensions can be ignored no longer. It is in the best interest of Turkey to reestablish relations with Syria to allow for the repatriation of refugees, as it has suffered as a result of a war it did not start. Normalization with Syria is the only path forward for Turkey.

Pro-establishment narrative

The West shouldn't trust Orbán, as he undermines its unity in Ukraine. Orbán's actions — such as blocking the EU's budget support for Kyiv — highlight his obstructionist agenda, and Hungary's EU presidency threatens European cohesion and values.

Establishment-critical narrative

The West's approach to international diplomacy is slow and ineffective. Orbán has advocated for faster, alternative solutions to achieving peace and suggested an immediate cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia to end the conflict. Meanwhile, the EU's current strategies have prolonged the war and caused instability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Hungary will leave the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

This is great news. Brazilian police wouldn't have pursued this case so far if there wasn't plenty of evidence of wrongdoing. There's a strong chance that Bolsonaro will be held accountable as long as Brazilian authorities continue to pursue justice.

Right narrative

It's obvious Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Lula, a corrupt leftist career politician, is using the judicial system to punish his predecessor. Right-leaning figures across the nation are being censored, and the legal system is increasingly being used as a weapon against opponents.

Nerd narrative

There's a 54% chance that Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Biden's debate performance wasn't an outlier; it was the final straw in a series of appearances and events throughout his presidency that showed he shouldn't be running for reelection. It's baffling how those close to him are allowing him to put his life's legacy on the line and how they don't see the problems losing the upcoming election will cause.

Narrative B

Historically, Democrats don't do well when they're this divided, and this isn't the time for them to abandon Biden. It's time for Democrats to copy Republicans' unwavering support for their nominee, despite his flaws, and make sure everything is done to defeat the existential threat that is Trump.

Nerd narrative

There's a 49% chance that Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

These numbers paint a positive picture of the future. A remarkable amount of people have returned to work after COVID, and they're enjoying rising wages. Meanwhile, the Fed has used interest rate policies to cool the economy. Despite unstoppable global issues, labor participation under the Biden administration is strong and inflation is simultaneously trending downward.

Republican narrative

These numbers are nothing to brag about. Since Biden took office, inflation has gone up 20% and inflation-adjusted wages have gone down largely because of Democrats' unnecessary money printing after COVID. The economy's slight improvements haven't stopped voters from feeling the effects of inflation, so Biden must be held accountable.

Nerd narrative

There's a 19% chance that the US enters a recession before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

AI companies are not taking the threat of espionage seriously enough. Particularly, foreign actors such as China have stepped up their efforts to steal American AI technology to use for their own purposes, but they may have heeded the call too late. The fact that this was not even reported to the authorities is a shocking reflection of how careless OpenAI can be in the face of a concerted effort to undermine the US.

Narrative B

Far from being lax on the security concerns AI raises, OpenAI has been proactive in the face of foreign governments trying to use their tools for malicious purposes. Disrupting an international influence network was only a piece of it, and it is wrong to stir up xenophobic paranoia over an issue that is already being addressed. It is unlikely that the exposure of model details will aid enemies of the US any time soon.

Nerd narrative

There is a 95% chance that an AI system will be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.