10 July 2024

Daily Newsletter

President of Liberia Takes 40% Salary Cut

The Facts

  • The president of Liberia, Joseph Boakai, has announced that he will reduce his annual salary by 40%, from $13,400 to $8,000 per year.

  • One in five people in Liberia live on less than $2 per day, with Boakai's office saying he was demonstrating "solidarity" with Liberians and "responsible governance."


The Spin

Narrative A

As Liberia grapples with a back-breaking cost of living crisis, it's a good sign that the country's politicians are taking it seriously. Pres. Boakai's predecessor was dogged by corruption and graft allegations, and Boakai was elected to end the wastefulness at the top. This is a positive step forward for the financial well-being and political culture of Liberia.

Narrative B

This is a clever public relations move from Pres. Boakai which will do nothing for the people of Liberia. This statement is meaningless unless he shows how the savings will be spent, as the funds still belong to his office alone. The constitution is clear that the president cannot unilaterally make this move. Pres. Boakai is making a meaningless gesture instead of fixing the economy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the population of Africa will be at least 1.6B in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

No Clear Outcome After Hill Dems Hold Key Meetings About Biden's Future

The Facts

  • Tuesday had been expected to be a decisive day for the political future of US Pres. Joe Biden as House and Senate Democrats held separate meetings, but talks are set to continue through the week signaling that the divide over the viability of his candidacy persists.

  • Senate Democrats refrained from sharing details on their closed-door lunch meeting, with Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) saying only that they had a "constructive conversation" focused on "beating" former Pres. Donald Trump.


The Spin

Narrative A

This decision isn't about Biden or the Democratic elites, it's about the people. The president had one bad debate, but that doesn't change the fact that the people overwhelmingly chose him as the party's nominee, and during recent campaign stops and talks with voters, it's become evident his support is still rock-solid among those he wants to continue to represent and those who want to defeat Trump.

Narrative B

Biden is going on the offensive, but not as much to defend himself against the calls to step aside as he's continuing the strategy of downplaying peoples' concerns over his health and ability to serve, let alone beat Trump. These worries go well beyond the party elites, as polling shows voters are losing faith in the president and could be thinking they voted for someone without knowing all the details.

Republican narrative

Biden’s cognitive decline has been obvious for years, yet the Democrats refused to hold a legitimate primary, denying voters the opportunity to select a new candidate. Now, they're looking to replace Biden in a dysfunctional secretive process involving party insiders and governors. After years of claiming to fight for democracy, the Democratic Party seems to have cast it aside.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Joe Biden will announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for president, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

South Korea: Samsung Union Declares Indefinite Strike

The Facts

  • About 30K National Samsung Electronics Union members in South Korea declared an indefinite strike on Wednesday, seeking higher pay and other benefits.

  • The unionized workers announced the decision on the last day of a three-day general strike, which reportedly failed to yield any ground.


The Spin

Narrative A

Samsung workers' strike signals future challenges as generative AI threatens jobs across sectors. Workers globally are demanding a say in how AI impacts their livelihoods. Microsoft has formed alliances with unions to address AI's effects, showing foresight and responsibility. This strike underscores the need for tech companies to collaborate with unions to navigate the evolving AI-led labor landscape — ensuring fair treatment and workforce empowerment.

Narrative B

Samsung employees are simply seeking to improve their life conditions through better pay, improved annual leave, and transparent performance-based bonuses. Despite Samsung's significant profits from the booming AI chip market, employees feel their rights have been ignored. After being ignored for a long time, they are desperate and resorting to the strike. This is the only way to make Samsung — which has been historically anti-union — reconsider its treatment of its labor force.

Narrative C

The Samsung strike coincides with ongoing semiconductor supply chain challenges, potentially negatively impacting global markets and major tech companies like Nvidia. While short-term disruptions may cause chip prices to rise, Samsung's financial health provides resilience. Investors should note that this strike could trigger broader labor actions, influencing market dynamics and investment strategies in the tech sector.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 12.2% of American workers will be represented by a labor union in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

French Prosecutors Probe Marine Le Pen Over Campaign Funding

The Facts

  • Prosecutors in Paris have launched an inquiry into National Rally leader Marine Le Pen's 2022 presidential campaign funding over suspicions of embezzlement, forgery, fraud, and claims that a candidate accepted a campaign loan.

  • In the second round of the 2022 French presidential election, Le Pen received 41% of the vote and was defeated by incumbent Pres. Emmanuel Macron.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Le Pen and her far-right National Rally party aren't new to controversies. Several allegations of misappropriation of funds have also been made before. It's high time she and her party are probed objectively and convicted for exorbitant campaign expenses and fraudulent financial deals.

Establishment-critical narrative

This persecution should come as no surprise. Authorities continue to conduct frivolous investigations into the campaigns of Le Pen and the National Rally party to bring a solid opposition to Macron down. It's more the norm than the exception. It's clear that there's political manipulation at play.

Nerd narrative

There's a 37% chance that Marine Le Pen will be elected president of France in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi Visits Moscow

The Facts

  • During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day visit to Russia, which concluded on Tuesday, the Kremlin said the two countries inked 15 bilateral agreements that will deepen ties and cooperation in various areas.

  • While Russia's relationship with India dates back to the Cold War, Modi's first visit to Moscow since the war in Ukraine was closely watched by the US, which has fostered closer ties with New Delhi in recent years, and Putin's ally China, which reportedly has had a rocky relationship with India.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

While Modi has called for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, he continues to buy cheap Russian oil and has abstained from all UN resolutions condemning Russia's invasion. There was never any realistic prospect that Modi would be able to temper Putin's criminal designs on Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia's enduring relationship with India, China, and several other major economies shows that the West's attempts to isolate Putin have largely failed. In fact, Russia seems to be in a much stronger place than when the Ukraine invasion started.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that there will be a China-India war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Study: Stool Sample Could Indicate Autism

Photo: Unsplash

The Facts

  • A recent study has found that gut microbes could be used to diagnose autism spectrum disorder (ASD), adding to a growing body of research on the subject.

  • Researchers at the Chinese University of Hong Kong analyzed stool samples from 1,627 children aged between one and 13 years old with or without ASD.


The Spin

Narrative A

Diagnosing autism relies heavily on subjective assessments, leading to potential biases and errors. The gut microbiome's potential role in autism diagnosis could form the basis of a diagnostic tool, enabling earlier and more accurate diagnoses. This could revolutionize autism diagnosis and treatment.

Narrative B

While the potential for stool sample analysis to aid in early diagnosis of ASD is exciting, caution is needed. The study doesn't clarify whether gut microbiome differences cause ASD or result from dietary or environmental factors. Further research and validation in diverse populations are essential.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance the first medical treatment based on nanorobots will happen by 2034, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Suspect Apprehended in Killing of BBC Journalist's Family Members

The Facts

  • Following the murder of the wife and two daughters of a BBC journalist in a suspected crossbow attack Tuesday evening, a suspect has been apprehended.

  • Police found 26-year-old former soldier Kyle Clifford, who was wanted in connection to the deaths, in the Enfield area. He is undergoing medical treatment after having been found with injuries.


The Spin

Narrative A

This tragedy could have been prevented had laws surrounding crossbows been tightened. Crossbows have been used in several recent, high-profile murders — as well as a thwarted 2021 plot to assassinate the late queen. It's ridiculous that these deadly weapons are so easily accessible.

Narrative B

This is no time to draw conclusions about this tragedy. The public should not be speculating and politicians should not be rethinking policy while law enforcement professionals are still gathering all the details. The family members of the victims have had little time to grieve, and these deaths should not be used for political reasons.

See sources

Russia Issues Arrest Warrant for Alexei Navalny's Widow

The Facts

  • A Moscow court on Tuesday issued an arrest warrant for Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, for participating in an "extremist" community.

  • The court ordered Navalnaya — who has lived in self-exile since 2021 and has resided in Germany since Navalny's death in February — to be put into custody for two months.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

It's no surprise that the court didn't share the explicit reason for Navalnaya's charges — because there wasn't any. The arrest warrant against her is an arrest warrant against the desire for freedom and democracy. However, it will not stop Navalnaya from continuing Navalny's fight, exposing the Russian government's corruption, and creating a free Russia of the future.

Pro-Russia narrative

Navalnaya was charged under Article 282.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, which punishes members of an extremist organization with up to six years imprisonment. She has openly participated in outlawed extremist structures founded by her late husband and has been evading law enforcement authorities. The West must stop spreading lies and glorifying Russian anti-nationals.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of president of Russia by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Haley Urges Delegates to Vote for Trump

The Facts

  • Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination this year, released all her delegates and encouraged them to vote for former Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive nominee, on Tuesday.

  • With the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee coming up on July 15, Haley called the convention a time for party "unity" and explained that she believes "Joe Biden is not competent to serve a second term, and Kamala Harris would be a disaster for America."


The Spin

Republican narrative

It's great to see that despite all the acrimony that arose during the primary race, and the fact that Trump hasn't invited Haley to the Republican convention, Haley is making this gesture in the name of party unity. The Biden campaign was attempting to lure Haley voters to its side, but this should empower her supporters to spurn the president and stick with the candidate that will better serve US interests — Trump.

Democratic narrative

This further solidifies the Republican Party as Trump's party, with little room left for moderates like Haley. Even after she suspended her campaign, she continued to pick up respectable percentages of the vote, but she's turning her back on her supporters and capitulating to a man who doesn't share her position on many policies and viciously attacked her personally during the primaries.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Microsoft Quits OpenAI Board

The Facts

  • Microsoft confirmed in a letter on Tuesday its immediate resignation from the observer role on the board of OpenAI, arguing that its participation was no longer needed after the artificial intelligence company allegedly improved its governance.

  • The tech giant, which has invested $13B in the ChatGPT maker, had a non-voting board seat in OpenAI for the past eight months, as part of a complete board overhaul following Sam Altman's ousting and return last fall.


The Spin

Narrative A

Once seen as potential competitive players, leading AI startups — including OpenAI — have become dependent on tech giants to cover costs and train its algorithms. This withdrawal comes as a direct consequence of the regulatory crackdown on the sway big tech holds over the still-nascent AI industry to promote fair competition.

Narrative B

Microsoft — and Apple too, according to reports — has indeed quit its non-voting role on OpenAI's board to ease concerns of antitrust regulators, but its withdrawal doesn't mean that the tech giant will no longer have any influence over OpenAI. Their partnership will continue under a new approach, as regular stakeholder meetings will be held.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that before 2026, OpenAI's commercial operations will cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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