Anti-China narrative

China's rapid expansion into green energy is marred by significant challenges, like forced labor in Xinjiang producing cheap polysilicon for solar panels and coal-powered factories manufacturing "clean" energy technology. Their true carbon and labor costs undermine China's green claims. Given the country's dominance in the market, decoupling from China will be difficult for the world.

Pro-China narrative

By achieving its renewable energy targets ahead of schedule, China is setting a remarkable example for the world in the green energy transition race. Over the past year, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter has become a prime investment destination for wind, solar, and nuclear power. Despite initial flaws, China's emissions trading system shows its commitment to reducing pollution.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that China's CO2 emissions will peak before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This verdict was expected. It was clear from the beginning that the UAE court would impose excessive sentences in a trial that was shamelessly unjust and characterized by many violations of due process and torture allegations. The court violated basic legal principles, including double jeopardy and retroactive punishment, for actions that were not illegal at the time they were allegedly committed. This unlawful ruling must be overturned, and the prisoners should be set free.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Abu Dhabi Federal Court of Appeal handed down the sentences after finding that the convicted individuals had collaborated with a banned terrorist organization to instigate violent unrest in the country. This included protests and clashes between security forces and protesting crowds, which could have resulted in deaths, injuries, and property destruction. All convicted criminals have the right to appeal their verdicts to a higher court.

Narrative A

It's not movie stars and their money that should decide which candidate runs for the US presidency. Moreover, democratic party leaders have reassured their support for Biden as they know he is the best choice to beat Trump. Talk of a Biden pullout is counterproductive as the election is fast approaching, and any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only plays into Trump's hands. Now is the time for Democrats to unite and fight as a united party.

Narrative B

At 81, Biden is no longer up to the challenges of running for the White House and should drop out of the race sooner rather than later to save the US from Trump and his extremist agenda. Biden is highly respected among Democrats, and he is the one who reunited the party, laying the groundwork to beat Trump. Biden has served the US for decades and has been an outstanding president, and stepping aside now is the best way to preserve his legacy.

Republican narrative

The Democratic Party has no one to blame for its recent political dysfunction but itself. Biden's horrific debate performance has snowballed into in-party fighting, and polling has consistently suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris is even less popular than the president. Democrats set up this implosion due to their own poor planning — Trump and the GOP will reap the benefits of this turmoil in November.

Nerd narrative

There is a 75% chance, that Trump will win if the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The saga of Archegos epitomizes everything wrong with Wall Street. Hwang was a known fraudster before Archegos, but the promises of big cash and his experience in the finance world lured in big players that would underwrite his schemes. This scandal was business as usual on Wall Street, as the systemic issues they have are yet to be rectified.

Narrative B

The American financial system remains sound, and the basis for this conviction is less sound than it might seem at first glance. None of the trades made by Hwang constituted manipulation on their own, and prosecutors relied on flimsy accusations that his intent was criminal. All traders are trying to "manipulate" the market to get an advantage, and Hwang was made a scapegoat by banks that bet big and lost.

Nerd narrative

There's a 36% chance that the S&P 500 will hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

From cathedrals in France to Denmark's stock exchange in Copenhagen, historic buildings are extremely prone to fires. While smaller buildings are most at risk, even massive cathedrals like Notre Dame are vulnerable due to their wooden roofs. Most remarkable is that due to their lack of modern fire-resistant technology, some estimate that one historic building catches fire every day.

Narrative B

While accidental fires receive global coverage, the media refuse to cover the far more sinister rise in vandalism against Catholic churches. Attacks are on the rise in France, the US, and, most terrifyingly, in Canada, where almost 100 churches have been vandalized and burned down since the announcement of the discovery of mass graves near a residential school in 2021. Catholic churches deserve protection as much as anything else.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the Catholic Church will elect a new Pope by November 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel wants to make a deal and get its hostages back, but it can't allow Hamas to stay in power. If Hamas is allowed to remain in power in Gaza, the group will immediately begin planning the next Oct. 7 terrorist attack. Though there are pressures at home and abroad to end the war prematurely, Israel must do what is best for its citizens.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Though Israel's war on Gaza must end as soon as possible, it's clear that Israel wants to occupy the strip indefinitely. Israel has failed miserably at defeating Hamas, as it continues to re-emerge in areas Israel has deemed "cleared." Indeed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political ambitions incentivize him to perpetuate this genocidal campaign as long as possible.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be prime minister of Israel by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Thursday's report highlights the success of Bidenomics, showing the economy's resilience and progress. Despite predictions of a recession and the need for high unemployment to curb inflation, the US has experienced robust growth, low unemployment, and falling inflation.

Republican narrative

Despite a slight decline to a 3% annual rate, many Americans remain frustrated by years of high prices. While the Fed may cut rates soon, the effects of prolonged inflation and elevated interest rates linger. The core inflation rate, at its lowest since April 2021, isn't enough to reverse consumer hardships.

Nerd narrative

There is a 53% chance the US unemployment rate will be above 4% in November 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

There's a reason why Russia ranks 162 out of 180 on the 2024 Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index. The labeling of The Moscow Times as "undesirable" is part of an effort to methodically target and silence news sites critical of the Kremlin and suppress journalists and organizations reporting on the truth in Russia and its war in Ukraine. Moscow can escalate its campaign against independent media, and such labels may make the journalists' job challenging, but the champions of democracy will continue to turn silence into speech.

Pro-Russia narrative

The Moscow Times served as a training ground for several journalists involved in anti-Kremlin propaganda. It systematically published articles that included false information of public interest, such as Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. As part of an ecosystem of foreign-funded and foreign-based organizations hostile to Moscow, the Moscow Times received funding from the Dutch and US governments. The Kremlin can accept an alternative point of view but can't accept disinformation aimed at discrediting Russian government policies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 9% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Even if the number of illegal votes is currently negligible, this law will further secure US elections. The only reason Democrats are voting against it is that they're counting on noncitizens casting ballots in their favor. Already, Democrats have been allowing these populations to vote in state elections, and it's only a matter of time before they open the door to federal elections.

Democratic narrative

The SAVE Act is nothing but blatant voter suppression, as it has the potential to discourage minority voters from registering. In an effort to rile up their base, Republicans are using this bill to stoke racism and xenophobia, while at the same time scaring potential Democratic voters from exercising their constitutional rights.

Nerd narrative

There's a 70% chance that the winner of the 2024 US presidential election will win the popular vote, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Pres. Ruto has taken a bold and surprising — and some might say desperate — move to try to restore public confidence in his government, bowing to pressure from protesters even if that may put his political base at risk. Though painful, this administration renewal is needed for Kenya to finally find stability and get out of this chaotic situation.

Narrative B

Ruto must understand that the only way for him to get Kenya out of this crisis is to respect the constitution and listen to the people. Firing his incompetent cabinet can, by no means, help solve these issues — especially when his chief secretary has been spared despite being unlawfully in office. He's only trying to buy time and avoid accountability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Kenya will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.