Left narrative

While the police are trying to catch the attackers and find the motive behind this shooting, there is just one argument that rings true someone dangerous, probably a convicted felon, had access to a gun. This criminal behavior will not end until the rules around owning a deadly firearm are hardened or the broad legal immunity granted to the gun industry is withdrawn.

Right narrative

The US doesn't have a gun problem; it has a gang and drug problem. Mass shootings aren't about gun control or gun violence. They have more to do with culture than criminality. Gun control just makes law-abiding citizens unarmed victims. One way to potentially save lives is to focus on developing smart guns that prevent indiscriminate, violent use by unauthorized people.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US murder rate will be at least 5.55 per 100K inhabitants in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The people of Sri Lanka, fed up with the corrupt political elite that has brought the country to an economic meltdown and with the debt and austerity measures imposed by the IMF, have decided to vote for change and economic sovereignty. Dissanayake still has a long way to go to deliver on his promises, but his victory offers hope for a better future.

Narrative B

First and foremost, Dissanayake must realize that his victory by no means suggests a national endorsement of his alliance's Marxist manifesto, given that more than half of the country didn't vote for him. It's vital that the new president acts in the best interest of the nation, leading a moderate campaign to deliver real change.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16% chance that Sri Lanka will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

For Japan, which can face many types of natural disasters, preparation is key. Japan is disaster-resilient and more equipped than most other nations. The nation's preparedness capabilities are world-renowned and its disaster management systems are well equipped to handle climate-catalyzed and other types of hazards alike.

Narrative B

Climate change has caused Japan to be hit with multiple record-breaking natural disasters this year. Climate change exacerbates tropical storms, which become more violent as sea temperatures rise, leading to significant damage and flooding, as is currently occurring in Japan's Ishikawa region. As highly accomplished as Japan's preparedness capabilities are, the impacts of climate change are likely to be overwhelming.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that an AI model will be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Crises across the world have highlighted the need to reform the UN with greater multilateralism to improve its work for its members. This is a foundational pact that strengthens the UN's institutions and better prepares it for future challenges.

Narrative B

While it's an ambitious plan, there is skepticism about whether its non-binding nature will yield the results it promises, as UN member states are already violating the UN charter on a daily basis.

Pro-Russia narrative

The text of this pact was not fully agreed upon before its adoption, and the UN rejected key amendments that Russia had called for. Since this pact only represents Western interests, Russia will not be a party to this agreement.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 12 active UN peacekeeping missions in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

These latest developments give hope that the international community is finally about to take action to prevent a worst-case scenario while there's still time before Dagalo's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commit genocide against non-Arab ethnic groups in al-Fashir. That intent should have long been predicted given that the RSF is essentially the janjaweed militia that did exactly that two decades ago, when a broad coalition came together to stop such atrocities.

Establishment-critical narrative

There's a good reason the talks over Sudan have failed in spite of the dire situation faced by the civilian population. Those involved in the peace process, from the Saudis to the Emiratis to the Americans, have a vested interest in the outcome of the conflict and aren't coming to the table with the purest of intentions. There will be no hope for negotiations unless the UN gets those with a geopolitical interest in the conflict to abstain from these mediations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

It's irresponsible — and dangerous — to ever shut down the government. It's even more ill-advised prior to an election when the politics could harm who gets blamed. In this case, Republicans will be cast as the villains. If anything, Republicans should support pushing this issue into next year, so the next presidential administration can decide how to fund the government.

Conservative narrative

Johnson has surrendered his conservative values to the Democrats and will now allow them to go ahead with their plot to unleash thousands of illegal voters in the upcoming election. It's common sense to ensure only American citizens can vote, but Democrats are willing to let the government shut down rather than implement this necessary security provision that was in the previous spending bill.

Democratic narrative

It's great to see mainstream Republicans have come to their senses and be willing to go forward with a bill to fund the government without the SAVE Act. That act is just another Trump scare tactic, as the former president has offered a baseless claim to fire up his base and possibly suppress the votes of those who oppose him. Hopefully, Republicans will continue to stand up to Trump.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that there will be a US government shutdown before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Despite remaining as quick-witted as ever, it's no surprise that a man close to entering his 80s is unlikely to extend his political career past 2028. Having survived two assassination attempts and countless barrages of deep-state warfare, former Pres. Trump more than deserves political retirement once he has finished the job of making America great again.

Democratic narrative

With a notable track record of taking unfavorable election results poorly, don't be surprised if Trump fails to stay true to his words if he is once again unsuccessful at the ballot box this November. As long as a plethora of legal cases continues to haunt the former President, it's likely Trump will continue his attempts to leverage political power post-November irrespective of 2024's result.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Trump will win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to Hezbollah's daily terror attacks along its northern border. However, it's in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has been patient regarding the situation in the north, but after a year of daily terror attacks on Israeli civilians, it has been forced to deal with Hezbollah more aggressively. Israel gave civilians time to evacuate and acted in a precise manner, hitting rockets and missiles that were being stored in civilian homes. Israel sincerely wants peace, but it can't allow Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups to threaten its society in such an existential way.

Pro-Palestine narrative

It's clear that Israel has the same goals in South Lebanon that it has had in Gaza — the forced displacement of the civilian population. Indeed, Israel seeks to spread terror among the Lebanese people to punish them for standing with Gaza. Israel has provided no evidence that civilian homes are being used to store munitions, and even if that were true, it wouldn't justify displacing whole regions of Lebanon.

Narrative D

This is a clear example of terrorism and a disregard for human life by Israel. Hezbollah opened a support front with Israel to stand in solidarity with Gaza, which has faced a genocidal Israeli campaign. Its attacks will end when Israel withdraws from Gaza. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is ready and able to defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance that Israel will invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.