Narrative A

OpenAI's pivot towards defense represents a critical strategic realignment, recognizing that America's technological sovereignty hinges on responsible AI development. By partnering with Anduril, the company aims to help democratic nations maintain a technological edge — potentially deterring conflicts and protecting national interests through advanced, ethically-guided artificial intelligence solutions.

Narrative B

OpenAI's move into the defense sector marks a troubling shift, as it risks amplifying the misuse of AI in cyberattacks, disinformation, and surveillance. This undermines safety priorities, increasing the likelihood of dangerous applications like weaponization and dystopian deepfakes. Acting on its defense sector ambitions normalizes military entanglements for profit, diverting focus from ethical stewardship.

Nerd narrative

There's a 61.5% chance that if, before 2050, AI kills more than 1M people, the policy response will be insufficient, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Trump's announcement Wednesday that he intended to nominate Atkins, an open advocate of cryptocurrencies, to head the SEC — alongside Trump's promises on the election campaign — further buoyed hopes that there would be more a favorable regulatory environment when it came to cryptocurrencies than the outgoing Democrat administration. That's why Bitcoin is having such a resurgence.

Narrative B

While Bitcoin may be the best-performing cryptocurrency there is, the truth is it's also been one of the most volatile investments. While it has had some spectacular rises in value, it has also had some spectacular crashes as well. It's not clear whether it makes a good investment as it was designed to be a payment method in the first place.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99.9% chance that one Bitcoin will be worth at least $100k before Jan. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Starmer's targets offer a clear, practical vision for the UK's future. With targets focused on improving the NHS, building 1.5M new homes, reducing crime, and boosting living standards, Labour aims to tackle key national issues head-on. By prioritizing homegrown energy and safe streets, Starmer's government offers real solutions, focused on long-term progress rather than short-term political gains.

Right narrative

Starmer's latest political reset reflects a government without direction or a coherent message, watering down old promises without a clear strategy or bold ambition. The omission of immigration further highlights the government's failure to address key national concerns. With no coherent plan for growth or border security, these targets appear as empty commitments that do little to tackle the country's pressing problems.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that Angela Rayner will win the next UK Labour Party leadership election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Trump's bold selection brings a fresh perspective and private-sector innovation to NASA's leadership. Isaacman's extensive spaceflight experience and business acumen make him ideally suited to accelerate space exploration and commercialization while transforming NASA's traditional approach.

Democratic narrative

Trump's latest appointment raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest due to Isaacman's close ties to SpaceX and Elon Musk. His lack of government experience and risk-taking background might not align with NASA's need for careful risk management and balanced program oversight. The era of the problematic "space billionaire" is reaching cosmic new heights.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that NASA will next land astronauts on the moon by February 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Once again, the DRC is the epicenter of a disease of unknown origin, as the country is already on full alert to combat the mpox epidemic. Scientists believe that the absence of safe drinking water, insufficient health facilities, and civil unrest are potential stressors at the local level. The WHO is looking into the outbreak, and health officials advise the public to remain calm, exercise good hygiene, and avoid large gatherings.

Narrative B

The DRC's weak healthcare infrastructure — combined with a segment of the population grappling with underlying health issues like malaria and malnutrition — may ultimately hinder the diagnosis of this new disease for the global health community. Time is of the essence with worries of a zoonotic spillover event with looming regional and even broader implications.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4.2% chance that there will be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Syrian rebels continue to make swift progress against the Assad regime. The regime's corruption and inability to govern has hollowed out the Syrian state to the point the army can no longer effectively defend government-held territory. Assad may soon fall.

Establishment-critical narrative

What is happening in Syria is a Western and Israeli-backed plot to weaken Iran and the axis of resistance. Though the Western media loves to fawn over the "Syrian rebels," in reality, Syria is facing a terrorist onslaught made up of jihadists and foreign fighters from across the world.

Democratic narrative

This drug bust is a prime example of why Mexico is a critical ally of the US and should be treated with respect. Unfortunately, Trump has, for almost a decade now, chosen to blame Mexico and immigrants rather than poor US policy and drug demand. Building a wall and taxing Mexican imports won't stop Americans from using drugs — in fact, it will do the opposite, putting American security and economic interests in danger.

Republican narrative

Critics can offer all the pessimistic predictions they want, but the fact is that Trump, without entering office yet, is already forcing Mexico to take a stand against drug smuggling. Not only is Mexico stopping illegal immigrants and fentanyl from crossing the US border, but illegal migrants themselves are deciding to return home ahead of Trump's inauguration. As Pres. Biden sleeps his way to retirement, Trump is prepping the world for his incoming no-nonsense presidency.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 421 police officers will be murdered in Mexico in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term at the White House, a forecast that assumes no changes in trade policies is set for failure. Rather than a steady growth in the coming years, the global economy is likely to take a hit from tariffs he has pledged to impose.

Narrative B

Whether you believe that the next Trump administration will harm the world economy or boost GDP growth in the US, the fact is that his trade plans will hardly be implemented in full — let alone cause a macro impact in the near term. If these projections don't stand, other reasons are likely to blame.

Nerd narrative

There's 50% chance that world real GDP growth per capita will be at least 2.7% in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The UNESCO recognition represents a crucial step in preserving Japan's cultural heritage and traditional craftsmanship. The designation honors more than just brewing techniques — it celebrates a millennium-old tradition that remains essential for social and cultural events in Japan.

Narrative B

Despite its global recognition, sake is declining in popularity among younger Japanese consumers, who prefer imported wine, domestic beer, and whiskey. Japan's traditional beverage industry needs modernization and marketing efforts to renew its people's interest in this divine gift.