The Trump administration's decoupling of nuclear cooperation from Israeli normalization represents a pragmatic approach to advancing U.S. regional strategic interests. This shift allows for critical energy partnerships while maintaining nonproliferation safeguards through innovative solutions like the 'black box' model. The deal could secure significant economic benefits through arms sales and investments while strengthening U.S. regional influence.
This policy reversal undermines regional stability and security by potentially enabling Saudi nuclear capabilities without adequate safeguards. The kingdom's past statements about pursuing nuclear weapons if Iran does so raise serious proliferation concerns. Trump's aim of removing the normalization obligation also weakens the strategic position of key U.S. ally Israel and could embolden regional adversaries, led by the Iranian regime.
This major policy shift marks a significant political and geostrategic success for Riyadh. With Gaza destroyed and Saudis overwhelmingly hostile to Israel's policies, any normalization would jeopardize the kingdom's national security, its de-escalation strategy, and undermine its Vision 2030. A civil nuclear energy deal will allow Riyadh to create the necessary infrastructure and expertise to further bolster its regional and global stance.