US and China to Conduct High-Stakes Talks in Geneva

US and China to Conduct High-Stakes Talks in Geneva
Above: The national flags of the United States and China flutter at the Fairmont Peace Hotel on April 25, 2024 in Shanghai, China. Image copyright: Wang Gang/Contributor/VCG via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Behind Beijing's defiant rhetoric lies a crumbling facade. While propaganda videos trumpet "never kneeling down," China secretly exempts American goods from tariffs and dispatches hushed delegations to Washington. This desperate choreography reveals the brutal truth that the Trump administration knows: as PRC factory floors empty and unemployment surges, Xi Jinping's nightmare isn't American pressure — it's millions of hungry citizens flooding streets in Tiananmen-like revolt.

Pro-China narrative

Behind China's measured diplomacy lies an unshakable resolve. While America brandishes tariffs like a desperate gambler's last chips, Beijing negotiates from diversified strength — its economy increasingly powered by domestic consumption and ties with BRICS nations. This calculated patience reveals the deeper truths: China doesn't need American markets to thrive, and America's self-inflicted economic wounds deepen with each passing day.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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