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Powerful AI, matching human capability across all domains, arrives in 1 to 2 years, as frontier lab CEOs watch the clock tick down on imminent transformation. Models already exhibit psychologically complex deception and scheming in lab settings, requiring counterintuitive interventions nobody anticipated. The binding constraint is the governance of systems more powerful than nation-states, with stakes genuinely civilizational.
Current AI governance solutions can eliminate hallucinations and deception by adopting appropriate epistemological frameworks, thereby making catastrophic risks manageable. At the same time, AI is poised to dramatically enhance scientific discovery, coordination and decision-making, even as real-world innovation remains grounded by the pace of physical experimentation and deployment. This creates a healthy balance: rapid gains in reasoning and insight without uncontrolled acceleration.
A quiet shift is underway. Artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly, while institutions struggle to keep pace. Intelligence now scales faster than governance, and capability outstrips responsibility. Abundant intelligence does not improve judgment; it paralyses it, encouraging moral outsourcing. The true risk lies not in machines but in leaders who relinquish accountability as global uncertainty grows.