Brazil's Top Court Panel Ratifies Ban on X
A five-judge panel in the Brazilian Supreme Court voted unanimously on Monday to uphold Justice Alexandre de Moraes' order for a nationwide ban on X (formerly Twitter) after its owner, Elon Musk, refused to suspend certain accounts.
Access to X has been blocked since Saturday as the deadline to name a legal representative after closing the local office in mid-August was missed. According to the Friday ruling, Musk "showed his total disrespect for Brazilian sovereignty" by refusing to comply with court orders.
Right narrative
Unelected authorities in Brazil have censored and repressed anyone opposing leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his allies ever since Jair Bolsonaro was in office. Blocking X nationwide is the latest — and certainly the most significant so far — attack against free speech in what was once a democratic country.
Left narrative
Social media companies must have a legal representative in Brazil to handle government takedown notices, so this ban is only natural after X removed all its employees from the country. This decision has nothing to do with free speech but everything to do with national sovereignty. Musk's social media platform is merely a coup machine serving US interests in the Global South.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Brazil will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Test Claims to Detect Prostate Cancer in 15 Minutes or Less
Researchers at Aston University, Birmingham, have reportedly developed a new test that could detect prostate cancer in less than 15 minutes and with up to 90% accuracy.
The test is "a substantial leap forward in personalised medicine and oncology," said Igor Meglinski of the Aston Institute of Photonic Technologies.
Narrative A
Early detection is crucial in the fight against prostate cancer. This is particularly beneficial for younger men, as prostate cancer symptoms appear once the disease has progressed. Screening allows for earlier diagnosis, which can significantly improve survival chances. Combined with improvements to existing cancer screening programs, this breakthrough could help save many lives.
Narrative B
Despite major advances in cancer treatment and declining mortality rates, fear of cancer remains stubbornly high. The disease evokes deep-seated fears about pain, suffering, and dying. This fear often leads to unnecessary procedures and treatments, including when more research is necessary. Very fortunately, cancer is no longer the death sentence it once was.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance the average survival rate of all cancers will exceed 75% by July 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
German Chancellor Urges 'Firewall' Around AfD
On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged all mainstream democratic parties to try to form stable governments in Thuringia and Saxony without the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), to try to keep the party away from any political influence in what has been characterized as a "firewall."
This followed Sunday's regional election in Thuringia and Saxony, eastern Germany, where the AfD party received 32.8% and 30.6% of the votes, respectively.
Narrative A
The election results in Thuringia and Saxony are a cause of anxiety for the Social Democrats and their coalition allies. However, the AfD must be prevented from gaining any significant political power. The AfD poses a threat to Germany, undermining the economy and dividing society. All democratic parties must work together to build stable governments free of right-wing extremism.
Narrative B
The AfD is the people's party for Thuringia and the eastern part of the country. The people have given the AfD a strong mandate to govern. Mr. Scholz is now trying to weaken the democratic participation of a large section of the population. Any attempts to block or freeze out the AfD are manifestly undemocratic and should be ignored. This is a dangerously autocratic move.
Narrative C
Anti-establishment parties are changing the German landscape. The conservative CDU has stated it would not rule with the extreme right, making it difficult to form a new government in Thuringia. In order to keep the far right out, the CDU will require left-wing parties on the left, Die Linke or Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW, to create a government coalition, which is improbable.
Nerd narrative
There is a 5% chance the Christian Democratic Union of Germany will announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Weight-Loss Drugs Could Slow Down Biological Aging
According to recently presented research, Semaglutide, a key ingredient of weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic, has been found to slow down aging and curb the causes of many chronic diseases
Used to cut body inflammation, semaglutide could also potentially treat conditions related to inflammation including Alzheimer's Disease, Parkinson's Disease, cancer, and arthritis.
Narrative A
Semaglutide is revolutionizing healthcare beyond just weight loss. It represents a significant leap in medical science, offering hope for millions, addressing obesity and its related comorbidities, and potentially reshaping our approach to preventive care. It may herald a new era in healthcare, tackling multiple health concerns with a single, powerful tool.
Narrative B
Semaglutide-based medication is now being used indiscriminately for weight loss, often without proper medical supervision. This raises concerns about potential side effects, including nausea, gallbladder issues, and even kidney damage. Long-term health consequences remain unknown and appropriate caution is warranted for consumers and patients.
Nerd narrative
There is an 81% chance that oral semaglutide will be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tunisia: Opposition Presidential Candidate Arrested
Ahead of the Oct. 6 Tunisian presidential election, opposition candidate Ayachi Zammel was arrested on Monday on allegations of fabricating campaign endorsements. Zammel is one of two individuals approved to challenge incumbent Pres. Kais Saied
Besides Zammel, a liberal figure, and Zouhair Maghzaoui, from the left-wing People's Movement, fourteen others had their bids to join the race denied by Tunisia's electoral commission. Three of these successfully appealed these rulings in court, but the electoral commission declined to reinstate them.
Narrative A
Tunisia under Saied has become an authoritarian state, as he dashes the dreams of democracy that the country had after the Arab Spring. Since coming to power, Saied has made blatant power grabs and has consolidated his control over the country, with these disqualifications and arrests of opposition figures being prime examples. These upcoming elections will be neither free nor fair.
Narrative B
Saied's reforms were desperately needed to ensure the country doesn't fall into the cycles of violence and stagnation that preceded his rule. The widespread acceptance of these reforms is perhaps reflected in the inability of opposition figures to garner signatures without resorting to fraud, while they make baseless claims of obstruction. The noise made by the opposition is clearly sour grapes.
Nerd narrative
There is a 99% chance that Kais Saied is reelected President of Tunisia in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel: Protests, Strikes Simmer Over Cease-fire and Hostage Deal
After the Israeli military recovered the bodies of six hostages over the weekend, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets in Israel to demand a deal that ensures the release of the remaining hostages. The country's largest labor union also called for a general strike.
The strike caused disruptions across the country on Monday, including at Israel's main international airport, but it was ignored in some areas. The strike was eventually called off in the afternoon following an order by Israel's Labor Court after it accepted a petition from the government.
Pro-establishment narrative
With the clock ticking, the US and its allies are confident that after some tough negotiating, a deal between Israel and Hamas can be reached. A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, the release of Israeli hostages, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.
Pro-Israel narrative
The murder of the six hostages over the weekend should serve as a wake-up call to Israelis that Hamas cannot be negotiated with. Every Israeli wants to see the hostages released, but Hamas has used the negotiations to kick the can down the road to ensure its survival. The protests in Israel have failed to unite the nation and only serve the political interests of the opposition. This situation is one of the biggest security dilemmas Israel has ever faced.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Everyone seems to understand — including most Israelis — that the main obstacle to ending this war is Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the US continues its charade of blaming Hamas for the lack of progress when the group has shown much flexibility in negotiations. The six hostages died over the weekend because Israel refuses to end its genocidal campaign in Gaza. The war could be over tomorrow, yet the US continues to back Netanyahu's intransigence.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that an Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days will be agreed to before November 5th, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Seizes Nicolás Maduro's Plane in the Dominican Republic
US Attorney General Merrick Garland announced on Monday that the US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) seized a Dassault Falcon 900EX aircraft used for the benefit of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro in the Dominican Republic earlier in the day.
This comes as CNN broke the news that the aircraft known as Venezuela's Air Force One — and registered to San Marino — was now in US custody. The plane was flown to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., landing shortly before noon.
Pro-establishment narrative
This move is part of a maximum pressure campaign on the authoritarian Maduro regime at home and abroad that could soon prompt further sanctions so Maduro feels consequences for rigging the election. Moreover, it delivers a clear message that no one is above the law to illegally acquire an aircraft and smuggle it out of the US.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's hypocritical to claim that this so-called seizure has something to do with the presidential elections in Venezuela, given that the US also stole a Venezuela-owned Boeing 300M cargo plane in cooperation with Argentina in February. Additionally, Venezuelan bank accounts and assets worth $2B have been seized in recent years.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that Nicolás Maduro will be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Suspends 30 Arms Export Licences to Israel
David Lammy, the British foreign secretary, said Wednesday that upon review, the UK would suspend 30 out of 350 arms export licenses to Israel, citing requirements under the UK's Export Control Act of 2002.
Since Britain's Labour Party ended 14 years of Conservative government on July 4, it has broken from its predecessors on a number of matters relating to Israel and Palestine — including restoring funding for the UN's Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).
Left narrative
The new UK government, under the leadership of Keir Starmer, is breaking with the past government in a number of ways — including Rishi Sunak's interference with the International Criminal Court. This government supports the court as the cornerstone of international law.
Right narrative
Under Conservative leadership, the UK was in lockstep with the US with respect to its policy on Israel. However, under the left-wing leadership of Starmer, he is breaking from his closest ally.
Nerd narrative
There is a 92.3% chance Keir Starmer will still to be the leader of the UK Labour Party by January 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.